M. Hashem Pesaran, Cynthia Fan Yang
arXiv 1 Sep 2021 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Applied Econometrics (2022) · 14 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2109.00321 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic models. These moment conditions are used to investigate the identification and estimation of the transmission rates. The paper then proposes a method that jointly estimates the transmission rate and the magnitude of under-reporting of infected cases. Empirical evidence on six European countries matches the simulated outcomes once the under-reporting of infected cases is addressed. It is estimated that the number of actual cases could be between 4 to 10 times higher than the reported numbers in October 2020 and declined to 2 to 3 times in April 2021. The calibrated models are used in the counterfactual analyses of the impact of social distancing and vaccination on the epidemic evolution, and the timing of early interventions in the UK and Germany.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newman, M (2018) Networks | 0.000 | 3 | 1 | 0% |
| 2 | Oliver, S. E., J. W. Gargano, H. Scobie, M. Wallace, S. C. Hadler, J… (2021) The advisory committee on immunization practices' interim recommendation for use of Janssen COVID-19 vaccine United States, Febr… | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 3 | Kalish, H., C. Klumpp-Thomas, S. Hunsberger, H. A. Baus, M. P. Fay,… (2021) Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 4 | Kiss, I. Z., J. C. Miller, and P. L. Simon (2017) Mathematics of epidemics on networks, Volume 598 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 5 | Oliver, S., J. Gargano, M. Marin, M. Wallace, K. G. Curran, M. Chamb… (2021) The advisory committee on immunization practices' interim recommendation for use of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine United States, Dece… | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 6 | Mossong, J., N. Hens, M. Jit, P. Beutels, K. Auranen, R. Mikolajczyk… (2008) Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 7 | Oliver, S., J. Gargano, M. Marin, M. Wallace, K. G. Curran, M. Chamb… (2020) The advisory committee on immunization practices' interim recommendation for use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine United Stat… | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 8 | Willem, L., T. Van Hoang, S. Funk, P. Coletti, P. Beutels, and N. Hens (2020) SOCRATES: An online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 9 | Atkeson, A., K. A. Kopecky, and T. A. Zha (2020) Estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR model | 0.000 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | Jagodnik, K., F. Ray, F. M. Giorgi, and A. Lachmann (2020) Correcting under-reported COVID-19 case numbers: estimating the true scale of the pandemic | 0.000 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
Showing the top 10 of 59 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries | 0.874 | 5 | 2 |