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Uniform Inference for Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes

Christian Holberg, Susanne Ditlevsen

arXiv 6 Jun 2023 · Mathematics — Statistics Theory · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2025)

arXiv:2306.03632 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Uniformly valid inference for cointegrated vector autoregressive processes has so far proven difficult due to certain discontinuities arising in the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator. We extend asymptotic results from the univariate case to multiple dimensions and show how inference can be based on these results. Furthermore, we show that lag augmentation and a recent instrumental variable procedure can also yield uniformly valid tests and confidence regions. We verify the theoretical findings and investigate finite sample properties in simulation experiments for two specific examples.

Citation extraction

28
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81
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distinct cited
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Anna Mikusheva (2007) Uniform inference in autoregressive models1.00094100%
2Peter CB Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos, et al (2009) Econometric inference in the vicinity of unity1.00093100%
3Anton Rask Lundborg, Rajen D Shah, and Jonas Peters (2022) Conditional independence testing in Hilbert spaces with applications to functional data analysis1.00086100%
4Tassos Magdalinos and Peter Charles Bonest Phillips (2020) Econometric inference in matrix vicinities of unity and stationarity1.00063100%
5John Y Campbell and Motohiro Yogo (2006) Efficient tests of stock return predictability0.81142100%
6Bruce E Hansen (1999) The grid bootstrap and the autoregressive model0.73732100%
7Hiroaki Kaido, Francesca Molinari, and Jörg Stoye (2019) Confidence intervals for projections of partially identified parameters0.73732100%
8Peter CB Phillips and Tassos Magdalinos (2007) Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root0.73732100%
9Christophe Cuny, Jérôme Dedecker, and Florence Merlevède (2021) Rates of convergence in invariance principles for random walks on linear groups via martingale methods0.69351100%
10Donald WK Andrews (1993) Exactly median-unbiased estimation of first order autoregressive/unit root models0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 28 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Robust Estimation in Network Vector Autoregression with Nonstationary Regressors0.51121