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Forecasting Large Realized Covariance Matrices: The Benefits of Factor Models and Shrinkage

Rafael Alves, Diego S. de Brito, Marcelo C. Medeiros, Ruy M. Ribeiro

arXiv 22 Mar 2023 · Finance — Statistical Finance · publishedJournal of Financial Econometrics (2023) · 19 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2303.16151 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose a model to forecast large realized covariance matrices of returns, applying it to the constituents of the S&P 500 daily. To address the curse of dimensionality, we decompose the return covariance matrix using standard firm-level factors (e.g., size, value, and profitability) and use sectoral restrictions in the residual covariance matrix. This restricted model is then estimated using vector heterogeneous autoregressive (VHAR) models with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Our methodology improves forecasting precision relative to standard benchmarks and leads to better estimates of minimum variance portfolios.

Citation extraction

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Callot, L., A. Kock, and M. Medeiros (2017) Modeling and forecasting large realized covariance matrices and portfolio choice1.00054100%
2Engle, R., O. Ledoit, and M. Wolf (2019) Large dynamic covariance matrices0.73732100%
3Lunde, A., N. Shephard, and K. Sheppard (2016) Econometric analysis of vast covariance matrices using composite realized kernels and their application to portfolio choice0.73732100%
4Chiu, T. and T. L. K.-W. Tsui (1996) The matrix-logarithmic covariance model0.64422100%
5Tibshirani, R (1996) Regression shrinkage and selection via the LASSSO0.64422100%
6Zou, H (2006) The adaptive LASSO and its oracle properties0.64422100%
Fanunmatched citation key Fan0.58531100%
8Cooper, M., H. Gulen, and M. Schill (2008) Asset growth and the cross-section of stock returns0.5112250%
9Lyandres, E., L. Sun, and L. Zhang (2008) The new issues puzzle: Testing the investment-based explanation0.5112250%
10Novy-Marx, R (2013) The other side of value: The gross profitability premium0.5112250%

Showing the top 10 of 61 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Sharpe Ratio Analysis in High Dimensions: Residual-Based Nodewise Regression in Factor Models0.40511
2Dynamic Portfolio Allocation in High Dimensions using Sparse Risk Factors0.40511
3A Simple Method for Predicting Covariance Matrices of Financial Returns0.40511
4Global Neural Networks and The Data Scaling Effect in Financial Time Series Forecasting0.40511