Kaiwen Hou, David Hou, Yang Ouyang, Lulu Zhang, Aster Liu
arXiv 8 Nov 2022 · Econometrics
arXiv:2211.04558 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard prediction model, this paper argues that such a belief is non-causal. To make causal inferences, we design a two-stage staggered difference-in-differences model to estimate the average treatment effects. Interpreting the residuals as the contribution of each crisis to the treatment effects, we astonishingly conclude that cross-sectional crises are often limited to providing relevant causal information to policymakers.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew J Tiffin (2019) Machine learning and causality: The impact of financial crises on growth. International Monetary Fund | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Jonathan Roth, Pedro HC Sant'Anna, Alyssa Bilinski \ John Poe (2022) What's Trending in Difference-in-Differences? A Synthesis of the Recent Econometrics Literature | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Clément de Chaisemartin \ Xavier d'Haultfoeuille (2020) Two-way fixed effects estimators with heterogeneous treatment effects | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Paul R Rosenbaum \ Donald B Rubin (1983) The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Rubi Ahmad, Oyebola Fatima Etudaiye-Muhtar, Bolaji Tunde Matemilola… (2016) Financial market development, global financial crisis and economic growth: evidence from developing nations | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Orley Ashenfelter (1978) Estimating the effect of training programs on earnings | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Susan Athey, Guido W Imbens \ Stefan Wager (2018) Approximate residual balancing: debiased inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Susan Athey \ Guido W Imbens (2022) Design-based analysis in difference-in-differences settings with staggered adoption | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Söhnke M Bartram \ Gordon M Bodnar (2009) No place to hide: The global crisis in equity markets in 2008/2009 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Alexandre Belloni, Victor Chernozhukov \ Christian Hansen (2014) Inference on treatment effects after selection among high-dimensional controls | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 26 scored citations.