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Degrees of Freedom and Information Criteria for the Synthetic Control Method

Guillaume Allaire Pouliot, Zhen Xie

arXiv 6 Jul 2022 · Econometrics

arXiv:2207.02943 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We provide an analytical characterization of the model flexibility of the synthetic control method (SCM) in the familiar form of degrees of freedom. We obtain estimable information criteria. These may be used to circumvent cross-validation when selecting either the weighting matrix in the SCM with covariates, or the tuning parameter in model averaging or penalized variants of SCM. We assess the impact of car license rationing in Tianjin and make a novel use of SCM; while a natural match is available, it and other donors are noisy, inviting the use of SCM to average over approximately matching donors. The very large number of candidate donors calls for model averaging or penalized variants of SCM and, with short pre-treatment series, model selection per information criteria outperforms that per cross-validation.

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60
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Abadie, Alberto and Diamond, Alexis and Hainmueller, Jens (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program1.00084100%
2Doudchenko, Nikolay and Imbens, Guido W (2016) Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: A synthesis1.00053100%
3Abadie, Alberto and L'Hour, Jérémy (2021) A penalized synthetic control estimator for disaggregated data0.92810580%
4Meyer, Mary and Woodroofe, Michael (2000) On the degrees of freedom in shape-restricted regression0.9285380%
5Zou, Hui and Hastie, Trevor and Tibshirani, Robert (2007) On the “degrees of freedom” of the lasso0.84310360%
6Abadie, Alberto and Diamond, Alexis and Hainmueller, Jens (2015) Comparative politics and the synthetic control method0.84333100%
7Ferman, Bruno and Pinto, Cristine (2021) Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit0.84333100%
8Kellogg, Maxwell and Mogstad, Magne and Pouliot, Guillaume A and Tor… (2021) Combining matching and synthetic control to trade off biases from extrapolation and interpolation self0.81142100%
9Tibshirani, Ryan and Taylor, Jonathan (2012) Degrees of freedom in lasso problems0.7547343%
10Chen, Xi and Lin, Qihang and Sen, Bodhisattva (2020) On degrees of freedom of projection estimators with applications to multivariate nonparametric regression0.7375340%

Showing the top 10 of 60 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Predictor Selection for Synthetic Controls0.40511
2Synthetic Regressing Control0.40511