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Predictor Selection for Synthetic Controls

Jaume Vives-i-Bastida

arXiv 22 Mar 2022 · Statistics — Methodology · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2203.11576 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Synthetic control methods often rely on matching pre-treatment characteristics (called predictors) of the treated unit. The choice of predictors and how they are weighted plays a key role in the performance and interpretability of synthetic control estimators. This paper proposes the use of a sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes the number of predictors used in generating the counterfactual to select the most important predictors. We derive, in a linear factor model framework, a new model selection consistency result and show that the penalized procedure has a faster mean squared error convergence rate. Through a simulation study, we then show that the sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and has better post-treatment performance than the un-penalized synthetic control. Finally, we apply the method to revisit the study of the passage of Proposition 99 in California in an augmented setting with a large number of predictors available.

Citation extraction

24
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in-text mentions
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix” · 65% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Abadie, Alberto, Diamond, Alexis, Hainmueller, Jens (2010) Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program0.93717682%
2Quistorff, Brian, Goldman, Matt, Thorpe, Jason (2020) Sparse Synthetic Controls: Unit-Level Counterfactuals from High-Dimensional Data0.87452100%
3Abadie, Alberto, Vives-i-Bastida, Jaume (2022) Synthetic Controls in Action self0.84333100%
4Abadie, Alberto, Diamond, Alexis, Hainmueller, Jens (2015) Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method0.81142100%
5Arkhangelsky, Dmitry, Athey, Susan, Hirshberg, David A., Imbens, Gui… (2021) Synthetic Difference-in-Differences0.7374350%
6Ferman, Bruno, Pinto, Cristine (2021) Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit0.73732100%
7Abadie, Alberto, Gardeazabal, Javier (2003) The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country0.40511100%
8Bai, Jushan (2009) Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects0.40511100%
9Ben-Michael, Eli, Feller, Avi, Rothstein, Jesse (2021) The Augmented Synthetic Control Method0.40511100%
10Chetverikov, Denis, Liao, Zhipeng, Chernozhukov, Victor (2016) On cross-validated Lasso in high dimensions0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 24 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

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