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Automatic Debiased Machine Learning for Dynamic Treatment Effects and General Nested Functionals

Victor Chernozhukov, Whitney Newey, Rahul Singh, Vasilis Syrgkanis

arXiv 25 Mar 2022 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2203.13887 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We extend the idea of automated debiased machine learning to the dynamic treatment regime and more generally to nested functionals. We show that the multiply robust formula for the dynamic treatment regime with discrete treatments can be re-stated in terms of a recursive Riesz representer characterization of nested mean regressions. We then apply a recursive Riesz representer estimation learning algorithm that estimates de-biasing corrections without the need to characterize how the correction terms look like, such as for instance, products of inverse probability weighting terms, as is done in prior work on doubly robust estimation in the dynamic regime. Our approach defines a sequence of loss minimization problems, whose minimizers are the mulitpliers of the de-biasing correction, hence circumventing the need for solving auxiliary propensity models and directly optimizing for the mean squared error of the target de-biasing correction. We provide further applications of our approach to estimation of dynamic discrete choice models and estimation of long-term effects with surrogates.

Citation extraction

26
references
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in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Heejung Bang and James M Robins (2005) Doubly robust estimation in missing data and causal inference models0.92843100%
2Victor Chernozhukov, Whitney K. Newey, Victor Quintas-Martinez, and… (2021) Automatic Debiased Machine Learning via Neural Nets for Generalized Linear Regression self0.73732100%
3Victor Chernozhukov, Denis Chetverikov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo,… (2018) Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters self0.64441100%
4Richard D Gill and James M Robins (2001) Causal inference for complex longitudinal data: The continuous case0.64422100%
5Miguel A Hernán, Babette Brumback, and James M Robins (2001) Marginal structural models to estimate the joint causal effect of nonrandomized treatments0.64422100%
6Liliana Orellana, Andrea Rotnitzky, and James M Robins (2010) Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, part i: main content0.64422100%
7James Robins (1986) A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period—application to control of the healthy w…0.64422100%
8James M Robins (2000) Marginal structural models versus structural nested models as tools for causal inference0.64422100%
9Mark J van der Laan, Maya L Petersen, and Marshall M Joffe (2005) History-adjusted marginal structural models and statically-optimal dynamic treatment regimens0.64422100%
10Stijn Vansteelandt and Els Goetghebeur (2003) Causal inference with generalized structural mean models0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 26 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
12606.290091.000103
2Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects0.935114
3Dynamic covariate balancing: estimating treatment effects over time with potential local projections0.51121
4Inference on Optimal Policy Values and Other Irregular Functionals via Softmax Smoothing0.51122
5When are time series predictions causal? The potential system and dynamic causal effects0.51121
6Deep Learning for Individual Heterogeneity0.40511