arXiv 17 Feb 2022 · Econometrics · publishedEconometrica (2023) · 21 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2202.08426 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper notes a simple connection between synthetic control and online learning. Specifically, we recognize synthetic control as an instance of Follow-The-Leader (FTL). Standard results in online convex optimization then imply that, even when outcomes are chosen by an adversary, synthetic control predictions of counterfactual outcomes for the treated unit perform almost as well as an oracle weighted average of control units' outcomes. Synthetic control on differenced data performs almost as well as oracle weighted difference-in-differences, potentially making it an attractive choice in practice. We argue that this observation further supports the use of synthetic control estimators in comparative case studies.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doudchenko, Nikolay and Guido W Imbens (2016) Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: A synthesis, Tech | 1.000 | 10 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Orabona, Francesco (2019) A modern introduction to online learning | 1.000 | 9 | 5 | 100% |
| 3 | Hazan, Elad (2019) Introduction to online convex optimization | 1.000 | 8 | 4 | 100% |
| 4 | Ferman, Bruno and Cristine Pinto (2021) Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit | 1.000 | 8 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Bottmer, Lea, Guido Imbens, Jann Spiess, and Merrill Warnick (2021) A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 100% |
| 6 | Abadie, Alberto (2021) Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 7 | Hazan, Elad, Amit Agarwal, and Satyen Kale (2007) Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 8 | Abadie, Alberto, Alexis Diamond, and Jens Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 9 | Chernozhukov, Victor, Kaspar Wüthrich, and Yinchu Zhu (2021) An exact and robust conformal inference method for counterfactual and synthetic controls | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Viviano, Davide and Jelena Bradic (2019) Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
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