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Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Assignment Rules under Policy Constraints

Shosei Sakaguchi

arXiv 9 Jun 2021 · Econometrics · publishedQuantitative Economics (2025) · 7 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2106.05031 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments, where individuals receive sequential interventions over multiple stages. We study estimation of an optimal dynamic treatment regime that guides the optimal treatment assignment for each individual at each stage based on their history. We propose an empirical welfare maximization approach in this dynamic framework, which estimates the optimal dynamic treatment regime using data from an experimental or quasi-experimental study while satisfying exogenous constraints on policies. The paper proposes two estimation methods: one solves the treatment assignment problem sequentially through backward induction, and the other solves the entire problem simultaneously across all stages. We establish finite-sample upper bounds on worst-case average welfare regrets for these methods and show their optimal $n^{-1/2}$ convergence rates. We also modify the simultaneous estimation method to accommodate intertemporal budget/capacity constraints.

Citation extraction

68
references
163
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distinct cited
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Rodríguez, J., F. Saltiel, and S. Urzúa (2022) Dynamic treatment effects of job training0.92843100%
2Athey, S. and S. Wager (2021) Policy learning with observational data0.89911473%
3Kitagawa, T. and A. Tetenov (2018) b): Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice0.86011664%
4Nie, X., E. Brunskill, and S. Wager (2021) Learning when-to-treat policies0.81142100%
5Weymark, J. A (1981) Generalized Gini inequality indices0.7375260%
6Meyer, B. D (1995) Lessons from the U.S0.7373367%
7Robins, J. M (1997) Causal inference from complex longitudinal data in latent variable modeling and applications to causality, in0.73732100%
8Zhou, Z., S. Athey, and S. Wager (2023) Offline multi-action policy learning: Generalization and optimization0.70717435%
9Jiang, N. and L. Li (2016) Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning, in0.6444250%
10Sakaguchi, S (2024) Robust learning for optimal dynamic treatment regimes with observational data, ArXiv:2404.00221 self0.6444250%

Showing the top 10 of 68 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Sequential Learning of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes with Observational Data1.00075
2Who Should Get Vaccinated? Individualized Allocation of Vaccines Over SIR Network0.40511
3Constrained Classification and Policy Learning0.40511
4Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice0.40511
5Who With Whom? Learning Optimal Matching Policies0.40511