Philipp Eisenhauer, Janoś Gabler, Lena Janys, Christopher Walsh
arXiv 1 Mar 2021 · Econometrics · 4 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2103.01115 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the true parameters. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policy-making as a decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides a well-known, influential, and empirically-grounded test case. We document considerable uncertainty in the models's policy predictions and highlight the resulting policy recommendations obtained from using different formal rules of decision-making under uncertainty.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keane, M. P. and Wolpin, K. I (1997) The career decisions of young men | 0.909 | 16 | 7 | 75% |
| 2 | Manski, C. F (2021) Econometrics for decision making: Building foundations sketched by Haavelmo and Wald | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Wald, A (1950) Statistical decision functions | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Bureau of Labor Statistics (2019) National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort, 1979-2016 (rounds 1-27) | 0.737 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 5 | Aguirregabiria, V. and Mira, P (2010) Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Armstrong, T. B. and Kolesár, M (2021) Sensitivity analysis using approximate moment condition models | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Ben-Tal, A., den Hertog, D., De Waegenaere, A., Melenberg, B., and R… (2013) Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Blesch, M. and Eisenhauer, P (2021) Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Bonhomme, S. and Weidner, M (2020) Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Gilboa, I (2009) Theory of decision under uncertainty | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 74 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |