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Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model

Sean Elliott, Christian Gourieroux

arXiv 21 Dec 2020 · Statistics — Methodology · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2012.11542 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to understand the extreme variability on the estimated reproduction ratio $R_0$ observed in practice. For expository purpose we consider a discrete time stochastic version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimators of $R_0$. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate by a Monte-Carlo study the width of confidence intervals on $R_0$.

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