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Evaluating (weighted) dynamic treatment effects by double machine learning

Hugo Bodory, Martin Huber, Lukáš Lafférs

arXiv 1 Dec 2020 · Econometrics · publishedEconometrics Journal (2022) · 110 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2012.00370 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption. To this end, we make use of so-called Neyman-orthogonal score functions, which imply the robustness of treatment effect estimation to moderate (local) misspecifications of the dynamic outcome and treatment models. This robustness property permits approximating outcome and treatment models by double machine learning even under high dimensional covariates and is combined with data splitting to prevent overfitting. In addition to effect estimation for the total population, we consider weighted estimation that permits assessing dynamic treatment effects in specific subgroups, e.g. among those treated in the first treatment period. We demonstrate that the estimators are asymptotically normal and $\sqrt{n}$-consistent under specific regularity conditions and investigate their finite sample properties in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the methods to the Job Corps study in order to assess different sequences of training programs under a large set of covariates.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, Newey, and Robins (2018) Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters1.000155100%
2van der Laan, Polley, and Hubbard (2007) Super Learner0.84333100%
3Lechner and Miquel (2010) Identification of the effects of dynamic treatments by sequential conditional independence assumptions0.64422100%
4Robins (2000) Marginal Structural Models versus Structural nested Models as Tools for Causal inference0.64422100%
5Tran, Yiannoutsos, Wools-Kaloustian, Siika, van der Laan, and Petersen (2019) Double Robust Efficient Estimators of Longitudinal Treatment Effects: Comparative Performance in Simulations and a Case Study0.64422100%
6Neyman (1959) Optimal asymptotic tests of composite statistical hypotheses0.51121100%
7Robins (1986) A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with sustained exposure periods - application to control of the healthy…0.51121100%
8Angrist, Imbens, and Rubin (1996) Identification of Causal Effects using Instrumental Variables0.40511100%
9Athey and Imbens (2017) The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation0.40511100%
10Athey, Imbens, and Wager (2018) Approximate residual balancing: debiased inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 51 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Dynamic covariate balancing: estimating treatment effects over time with potential local projections0.64422
22012.007450.51121
3Sequential kernel embedding for mediated and time-varying dose response curves0.51122
4Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Novel Treatments: The Dynamically Adjusted Surrogate Index0.40511
5Automatic Debiased Machine Learning for Dynamic Treatment Effects and General Nested Functionals0.40511
6Doubly Robust Estimation of Direct and Indirect Quantile Treatment Effects with Machine Learning0.40511
72406.138260.40511
8Double Machine Learning meets Panel Data - Promises, Pitfalls, and Potential Solutions0.40511
9Heterogeneity Analysis with Heterogeneous Treatments0.40511
10Difference-in-differences for mediation analysis using double machine learning0.40511