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Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments

Ashesh Rambachan, Jonathan Roth

arXiv 3 Aug 2020 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of the American Statistical Association (2025) · 8 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2008.00602 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social sciences, in which the treatment assignment can be viewed as the realization of some stochastic process but there is concern about unobserved selection into treatment. In our framework, treatments are stochastic, but units may differ in their probabilities of receiving treatment, thereby allowing for rich forms of selection. We provide conditions under which the estimands of popular quasi-experimental estimators correspond to interpretable finite-population causal parameters. We characterize the biases and distortions to inference that arise when these conditions are violated. These results can be used to conduct sensitivity analyses when there are concerns about selection into treatment. Taken together, our results establish a rigorous foundation for quasi-experimental analyses that more closely aligns with the way empirical researchers discuss the variation in the data.

Citation extraction

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Wherry and Miller (2016) Early Coverage, Access, Utilization, and Health Effects Associated With the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions1.00053100%
2Abadie, Athey, Imbens and Wooldridge (2020) Sampling-Based versus Design-Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis0.87482100%
3Neyman (1923) On the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles. Section 90.87462100%
4Li and Ding (2017) General Forms of Finite Population Central Limit Theorems with Applications to Causal Inference0.8434375%
5Freedman (2008) On Regression Adjustments to Experimental Data0.84333100%
6Lin (2013) Agnostic Notes on Regression Adjustments to Experimental Data: Reexamining Freedman's Critique0.84333100%
7Abadie, Athey, Imbens and Wooldridge (2023) When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?0.81142100%
8Hajek (1964) Asymptotic Theory of Rejective Sampling with Varying Probabilities from a Finite Population0.7639544%
9Imbens and Manski (2004) Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters0.73715440%
10Rambachan and Roth (2023) A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends0.7374350%

Showing the top 10 of 62 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Finite Population Identification and Design-Based Sensitivity Analysis1.00053
2What's Trending in Difference-in-Differences? A Synthesis of the Recent Econometrics Literature0.64441
3A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods0.64422
4Breakdown Analysis for Instrumental Variables with Binary Outcomes0.64422
5Inference with few treated units0.58531
6Inference in Difference-in-Differences: How Much Should We Trust in Independent Clusters?0.51152
7Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner's Guide0.51121
81710.029260.40511
9Inference in Difference-in-Differences with Few Treated Units and Spatial Correlation0.40511
10Efficient Estimation for Staggered Rollout Designs0.40511