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State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade

Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner

arXiv 27 Apr 2020 · Econometrics · 9 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2004.12655 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Weidner, Martin (2018) Fixed Effects Estimation of Large-T Panel Data Models1.000144100%
2Helpman, Elhanan, Melitz, Marc J., Rubinstein, Yona (2008) Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes1.00073100%
3Weidner, Martin (2016) Individual and Time Effects in Nonlinear Panel Models with Large N, T0.90920775%
4Cruz-Gonzalez, Mario, Weidner, Martin (2017) Bias Corrections for Probit and Logit Models with Two-Way Fixed Effects0.8435360%
5Baier, Scott L., Bergstrand, Jeffrey H (2007) Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members' International Trade?0.84333100%
6Neyman, J., Scott, Elisabeth L (1948) Consistent Estimates Based on Partially Consistent Observations0.7946350%
7Anderson, James E., Wincoop, Eric (2003) Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle0.73732100%
8Conte, Maddalena, Cotterlaz, Pierre, Mayer, Thierry (2021)0.73732100%
9Czarnowske, Daniel, Stammann, Amrei (2019) Binary Choice Models with High-Dimensional Individual and Time Fixed Effects self0.73732100%
10Eaton, Jonathan, Kortum, Samuel, Kramarz, Francis (2011) An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 48 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Debiased Fixed Effects Estimation of Binary Logit Models with Three-Dimensional Panel Data0.73732
2(Debiased) Inference for Fixed Effects Estimators with Three-Dimensional Panel and Network Data0.64422
3Fixed Effects Binary Choice Models: Estimation and Inference with Long Panels0.40511