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Efficient and Convergent Sequential Pseudo-Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games

Adam Dearing, Jason R. Blevins

arXiv 22 Dec 2019 · Econometrics · publishedThe Review of Economic Studies (2024) · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1912.10488 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose a new sequential Efficient Pseudo-Likelihood (k-EPL) estimator for dynamic discrete choice games of incomplete information. k-EPL considers the joint behavior of multiple players simultaneously, as opposed to individual responses to other agents' equilibrium play. This, in addition to reframing the problem from conditional choice probability (CCP) space to value function space, yields a computationally tractable, stable, and efficient estimator. We show that each iteration in the k-EPL sequence is consistent and asymptotically efficient, so the first-order asymptotic properties do not vary across iterations. Furthermore, we show the sequence achieves higher-order equivalence to the finite-sample maximum likelihood estimator with iteration and that the sequence of estimators converges almost surely to the maximum likelihood estimator at a nearly-superlinear rate when the data are generated by any regular Markov perfect equilibrium, including equilibria that lead to inconsistency of other sequential estimators. When utility is linear in parameters, k-EPL iterations are computationally simple, only requiring that the researcher solve linear systems of equations to generate pseudo-regressors which are used in a static logit/probit regression. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the theoretical results and show k-EPL's good performance in finite samples in both small- and large-scale games, even when the game admits spurious equilibria in addition to one that generated the data. We apply the estimator to study the role of competition in the U.S. wholesale club industry.

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45
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Egesdal, M., Z. Lai, and C.-L. Su (2015) Estimating dynamic discrete-choice games of incomplete information1.00083100%
2Bugni, F. and J. Bunting (2021) On the iterated estimation of dynamic discrete choice games1.00063100%
3Aguirregabiria, V. and P. Mira (2007) Sequential estimation of dynamic discrete games0.95632688%
4Aguirregabiria, V. and M. Marcoux (2021) Imposing equilibrium restrictions in the estimation of dynamic discrete games0.93511382%
5Kasahara, H. and K. Shimotsu (2008) Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models0.9285380%
6Aguirregabiria, V. and P. Mira (2002) Swapping the nested fixed point algorithm: A class of estimators for discrete Markov decision models0.874102100%
7Kasahara, H. and K. Shimotsu (2012) Sequential estimation of structural models with a fixed point constraint0.7948450%
8Bajari, P., C. Benkard, and J. Levin (2007) Estimating dynamic models of imperfect competition0.73732100%
9Rust, J (1987) Optimal replacement of GMC bus engines: An empirical model of Harold Zurcher0.73732100%
10Pesendorfer, M. and P. Schmidt-Dengler (2010) Sequential estimation of dynamic discrete games: A comment0.7218338%

Showing the top 10 of 45 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Jacobian-free Efficient Pseudo-Likelihood (EPL) Algorithm1.00073
2Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games with Unknown Information Structure0.92843
3Sequential algorithm for structural estimations with equilibrium constraints0.901268
4Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity0.87452
5Nested Pseudo-GMM Estimation of Demand for Differentiated Products0.64422
6Nested Pseudo Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Dynamic Discrete Games0.40511
7Identification and Estimation of Continuous-Time Dynamic Discrete Choice Games0.40511
8Lagrange multipliers in Maximum likelihood estimations and Least squares problems with Constraints0.40511