EconBase
← All papers

High-Dimensional Granger Causality Tests with an Application to VIX and News

Andrii Babii, Eric Ghysels, Jonas Striaukas

arXiv 13 Dec 2019 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Financial Econometrics (2022) · 22 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1912.06307 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We study Granger causality testing for high-dimensional time series using regularized regressions. To perform proper inference, we rely on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation of the asymptotic variance and develop the inferential theory in the high-dimensional setting. To recognize the time series data structures we focus on the sparse-group LASSO estimator, which includes the LASSO and the group LASSO as special cases. We establish the debiased central limit theorem for low dimensional groups of regression coefficients and study the HAC estimator of the long-run variance based on the sparse-group LASSO residuals. This leads to valid time series inference for individual regression coefficients as well as groups, including Granger causality tests. The treatment relies on a new Fuk-Nagaev inequality for a class of $\tau$-mixing processes with heavier than Gaussian tails, which is of independent interest. In an empirical application, we study the Granger causal relationship between the VIX and financial news.

Citation extraction

47
references
76
in-text mentions
47
distinct cited
2
self-citations
17,097
main-text words

appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Babii, Ghysels, and Striaukas (2020) Machine learning time series regressions with an application to nowcasting self1.00084100%
2Andrews (1991) Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation1.00053100%
3Fuk and Nagaev (1971) Probability inequalities for sums of independent random variables0.84333100%
4Parzen (1957) On consistent estimates of the spectrum of a stationary time series0.84333100%
5Dedecker and Prieur (2004) Coupling for $$-dependent sequences and applications0.81142100%
6van de Geer, Bühlmann, Ritov, and Dezeure (2014) On asymptotically optimal confidence regions and tests for high-dimensional models0.81142100%
7Bybee, Kelly, Manela, and Xiu (2020) The structure of economic news0.73732100%
8Andreou, Ghysels, and Kourtellos (2013) Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?0.64422100%
9Newey and West (1987) A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix0.64422100%
10Dedecker and Doukhan (2003) A new covariance inequality and applications0.58531100%

Showing the top 10 of 47 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Lasso Inference for High-Dimensional Time Series0.92843
2Machine Learning Panel Data Regressions with Heavy-tailed Dependent Data: Theory and Application0.714116
3Econometrics of Machine Learning Methods in Economic Forecasting0.69351
4Performance of Empirical Risk Minimization for Linear Regression with Dependent Data0.64422
5Uniform Inference in High-Dimensional Threshold Regression Models0.64422
62410.043300.64422
7Diffusion Index Forecasting with Tensor Data0.51122
8Panel Data Nowcasting: The Case of Price-Earnings Ratios0.40511
9LASSO Inference for High Dimensional Predictive Regressions0.40511
10Nowcasting and aggregation: Why small Euro area countries matter0.40511