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A path-sampling method to partially identify causal effects in instrumental variable models

Florian Gunsilius

arXiv 21 Oct 2019 · Econometrics · 4 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1910.09502 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a “curse of cardinality”: the number of restrictions on the identified set grows exponentially with the number of points in the support of the endogenous treatment. This article proposes a novel path-sampling approach to this challenge. It is designed for partially identifying causal effects of interest in the most complex models with continuous endogenous treatments. A stochastic process representation allows to seamlessly incorporate assumptions on individual behavior into the model. Some potential applications include dose-response estimation in randomized trials with imperfect compliance, the evaluation of social programs, welfare estimation in demand models, and continuous choice models. As a demonstration, the method provides informative nonparametric bounds on household expenditures under the assumption that expenditure is continuous. The mathematical contribution is an approach to approximately solving infinite dimensional linear programs on path spaces via sampling.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Imbens \ Newey (2009) `Identification and estimation of triangular simultaneous equations models without additivity', Econometrica 77(5), 1481–15121.000143100%
2Chesher \ Rosen (2017) `Generalized instrumental variable models', Econometrica 85(3), 959–9891.000103100%
3Kitamura \ Stoye (2018) `Nonparametric analysis of random utility models', Econometrica, forthcoming1.00073100%
4Anderson \ Nash (1987) Linear programming in infinite dimensional spaces: Theory and applications, Wiley0.92843100%
5Blundell, Chen \ Kristensen (2007) `Semi-nonparametric IV estimation of shape-invariant Engel curves', Econometrica 75(6), 1613–16690.87492100%
6Russell (2019) `Sharp bounds on functionals of the joint distribution in the analysis of treatment effects', Journal of Business & Economic Sta…0.87482100%
7Balke \ Pearl (1994) Counterfactual probabilities: Computational methods, bounds and applications, in `Proceedings of the Tenth international confere…0.87472100%
8Balke \ Pearl (1997) `Bounds on treatment effects from studies with imperfect compliance', Journal of the American Statistical Association 92(439), 1…0.87472100%
9Pucci de Farias \ Van Roy (2004) `On constraint sampling in the linear programming approach to approximate dynamic programming', Mathematics of Operations Resear…0.87462100%
10Beresteanu, Molchanov \ Molinari (2012) `Partial identification using random set theory', Journal of Econometrics 166(1), 17–320.87452100%

Showing the top 10 of 80 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Simple Inference on Functionals of Set-Identified Parameters Defined by Linear MomentsA previous version of this paper was circulated under the title “Inference on Functionals of Set-Identified Parameters Defined by Convex Moments." We are grateful to Ivan Canay, the associate editor, and two referees for excellent feedback that greatly improved the paper. We thank Victor Aguirregabiria, Bulat Gafarov, Christian Gourieroux, Jiaying Gu, Ismael Mourifie, Jeffrey Negrea, Adam Rosen, Brennan Thompson, Stanislav Volgushev and Yuanyuan Wan for helpful comments and discussion. We are also grateful to participants at the 7th Annual Doctoral Workshop in Applied Econometrics at the University of Toronto, as well as participants at the 2019 North America Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society at the University of Washington. This research was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. All errors are our own0.40511
2Partial Identification in Nonseparable Binary Response Models with Endogenous Regressors We are grateful to James Heckman, Marc Henry, Roger Koenker, and to seminar audiences at Columbia University and Michigan State University for helpful feedback. We also thank Martin Weidner and the organizers of the Chamberlain Seminar, and are grateful to Florian Gunsilius, Sukjin Han, Wayne Gao, and Takuya Ura for their questions and feedback, and to Adam Rosen for his thoughtful discussion. Jiaying Gu acknowledges financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. All errors are our own0.40511
3Stochastic treatment choice with empirical welfare updating0.40511
4Bounds for within-household encouragement designs with interference0.40511