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On the Properties of the Synthetic Control Estimator with Many Periods and Many Controls

Bruno Ferman

arXiv 16 Jun 2019 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of the American Statistical Association (2021) · 39 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1906.06665 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We consider the asymptotic properties of the Synthetic Control (SC) estimator when both the number of pre-treatment periods and control units are large. If potential outcomes follow a linear factor model, we provide conditions under which the factor loadings of the SC unit converge in probability to the factor loadings of the treated unit. This happens when there are weights diluted among an increasing number of control units such that a weighted average of the factor loadings of the control units asymptotically reconstructs the factor loadings of the treated unit. In this case, the SC estimator is asymptotically unbiased even when treatment assignment is correlated with time-varying unobservables. This result can be valid even when the number of control units is larger than the number of pre-treatment periods.

Citation extraction

24
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J (2010) Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program1.00063100%
2Ferman, B. and Pinto, C (2019) Synthetic Controls with Imperfect Pre-Treatment Fit self0.96510590%
3Doudchenko, N. and Imbens, G (2016) Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: A synthesis0.92843100%
4Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., and Wa… (2018) Synthetic Difference in Differences0.92843100%
5Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J (2015) Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method0.8434475%
6Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J (2003) The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country0.7373367%
7Chernozhukov, V., Wuthrich, K., and Zhu, Y (2019) An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls0.71411436%
8Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., and Newey, W. K (2018) Inference in linear regression models with many covariates and heteroscedasticity0.58531100%
9Botosaru, I. and Ferman, B (2019) On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method self0.5114225%
10Athey, S. and Imbens, G (2016) The State of Applied Econometrics-Causality and Policy Evaluation0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 24 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1A Method of Moments Approach to Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Controls0.96194
2A Relaxation Approach to Synthetic Control0.92843
3Synthetic Controls with Imperfect Pre-Treatment Fit0.92094
4Synthetic Principal Component Design: Fast Covariate Balancing with Synthetic Controls0.81142
5Causal Inference in Financial Event Studies0.73752
6Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Control Methods by Moment Matching0.73732
72206.017790.64441
82203.062790.58531
9Debiasing and $t$-tests for synthetic control inference on average causal effects0.51132
10Using Multiple Outcomes to Improve the Synthetic Control Method0.51122