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Should We Adjust for the Test for Pre-trends in Difference-in-Difference Designs?

Jonathan Roth

arXiv 4 Apr 2018 · Econometrics · 8 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1804.01208 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The common practice in difference-in-difference (DiD) designs is to check for parallel trends prior to treatment assignment, yet typical estimation and inference does not account for the fact that this test has occurred. I analyze the properties of the traditional DiD estimator conditional on having passed (i.e. not rejected) the test for parallel pre-trends. When the DiD design is valid and the test for pre-trends confirms it, the typical DiD estimator is unbiased, but traditional standard errors are overly conservative. Additionally, there exists an alternative unbiased estimator that is more efficient than the traditional DiD estimator under parallel trends. However, when in population there is a non-zero pre-trend but we fail to reject the hypothesis of parallel pre-trends, the DiD estimator is generally biased relative to the population DiD coefficient. Moreover, if the trend is monotone, then under reasonable assumptions the bias from conditioning exacerbates the bias relative to the true treatment effect. I propose new estimation and inference procedures that account for the test for parallel trends, and compare their performance to that of the traditional estimator in a Monte Carlo simulation.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Andrews, I. and Kasy, M (2017) Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias0.8434375%
2Lee, J. D., Sun, D. L., Sun, Y., and Taylor, J. E (2016) Exact post-selection inference, with application to the lasso0.8435360%
3Borusyak, K. and Jaravel, X (2016) Revisiting Event Study Designs0.5112250%
4Camerer, C. F., Dreber, A., Forsell, E., Ho, T.-H., Huber, J., Johan… (2016) Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics0.40511100%
5Abadie, A (2005) Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators0.40511100%
6Athey, S. and Imbens, G. W (2006) Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models0.40511100%
7Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., and Mullainathan, S (2004) How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?0.40511100%
8Brodeur, A., Lé, M., Sangnier, M., and Zylberberg, Y (2016) Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back0.40511100%
9Christensen, G. S. and Miguel, E (2016) Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research0.40511100%
10Donald, S. G. and Lang, K (2007) Inference with Difference-in-Differences and Other Panel Data0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 20 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Estimating the Causal Effect of an Intervention in a Time Series Setting: the C-ARIMA Approach0.51121
2Bounds on Distributional Treatment Effect Parameters using Panel Data with an Application on Job Displacement0.40511
3What's Trending in Difference-in-Differences? A Synthesis of the Recent Econometrics Literature0.40511