arXiv 7 Nov 2017 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2022) · 54 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1711.02745 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and that the difference in means between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I propose nonparametric estimators for average direct and spillover effects that overcome these issues and are consistent and asymptotically normal under a precise relationship between the number of parameters of interest, the total sample size and the treatment assignment mechanism. These findings are illustrated using data from a conditional cash transfer program and with simulations. The empirical results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation: the estimated difference in means and the reduced-form linear-in-means coefficients are all close to zero and statistically insignificant, whereas the nonparametric estimators I propose reveal large, nonlinear and significant spillover effects.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kline and Tamer (2019) Econometric Analysis of Models with Social Interactions | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Ogburn and VanderWeele (2014) Causal Diagrams for Interference | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Hudgens and Halloran (2008) Toward Causal Inference with Interference | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Manski (1993) Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Manski (2013) Identification of treatment response with social interactions | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Barrera-Osorio, Bertrand, Linden, and Perez-Calle (2011) Improving the Design of Conditional Transfer Programs: Evidence from a Randomized Education Experiment in Colombia | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Baird, Bohren, McIntosh, and Özler (2018) Optimal Design of Experiments in the Presence of Interference | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Duflo and Saez (2003) The Role of Information and Social Interactions in Retirement Plan Decisions: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Hirano and Hahn (2010) Design of Randomized Experiments to Measure Social Interaction Effects | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Moffit (2001) Policy Interventions, Low-level Equilibria and Social Interactions | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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