Florian Ziel, Rick Steinert, Sven Husmann
arXiv 27 Feb 2014 · Statistics — Applications · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1402.7027 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like renewable energy. The model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic VAR-TARCH with wind power, solar power, and load as influences on the time series. It is able to map the distinct and well-known features of electricity prices in Germany. An efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation. Moreover, it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keles, D., Genoese, M., Möst, D., and Fichtner, W (2012) Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Liebl, D (2013) Modeling and forecasting electricity spot prices: A functional data perspective | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Würzburg, K., Labandeira, X., and Linares, P (2013) Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Guthrie, G. and Videbeck, S (2007) Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Koopman, S. J., Ooms, M., and Carnero, M. A (2007) Periodic seasonal Reg-ARFIMA–GARCH models for daily electricity spot prices | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Liu, H. and Shi, J (2013) Applying ARMA–GARCH approaches to forecasting short-term electricity prices | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Weron, R (2006) Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Efron, B., Hastie, T., Johnstone, I., and Tibshirani, R (2004) Least angle regression | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Hsu, N.-J., Hung, H.-L., and Chang, Y.-M (2008) Subset selection for vector autoregressive processes using lasso | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Keles, D., Genoese, M., Möst, D., Ortlieb, S., and Fichtner, W (2013) A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 45 scored citations.