← All authors James Mitchell Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (from arXiv:2501.04607, 2025) · ORCID · OpenAlex
54 papers in scope · 51 published · 2 on the econ.EM arXiv · 1,943 citations · h-index 22 (over the papers listed here)
Related authors The 20 authors closest to this one in our weighted citation graph, most related first.
Minchul Shin Florian Huber Francis X. Diebold Boyuan Zhang Gary Koop Luca Onorante Niko Hauzenberger Andreas Joseph Dimitris Korobilis Josef Schreiner Michael Pfarrhofer Philippe Goulet Coulombe Gregor Kastner Luca Rossini Sanjog Misra Tengyuan Liang Mingli Chen Tony Chernis Li Li Yanfei Kang Proximity is measured over citations between two papers we both hold, weighted by how heavily one leans on the other, and is symmetric — it does not distinguish citing from being cited. Authors without a profile here are skipped, and a genuinely close colleague can be missing simply because their work is not in our arXiv corpus. Method: docs/06-citations-pipeline.md .
Papers (3 of 54)
Practice makes perfect: Learning effects with household point and density forecasts of inflation
published 2025 · International Journal of Forecasting · 3 citations · first circulated 2024
with Taylor Shiroff, Hana Braitsch
Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?
published 2025 · Economics Letters
with Taylor Shiroff
PREDICTIVE DENSITY COMBINATION USING BAYESIAN MACHINE LEARNING
published 2025 · International Economic Review · 1 citations
working paper 2025 · arXiv · 1 citations
Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics
published 2024 · Journal of Applied Econometrics · 7 citations · first circulated 2022
Incorporating short data into large mixed-frequency vector autoregressions for regional nowcasting
published 2023 · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · 6 citations
working paper 2023 · arXiv · 1 citations
working paper 2023 · arXiv · 6 citations
Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
published 2023 · Journal of money credit and banking · 4 citations · first circulated 2021
with Ana Beatriz Galvão
Censored density forecasts: Production and evaluation
published 2023 · Journal of Applied Econometrics · 4 citations · first circulated 2021
with Martin Weale
Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*
published 2023 · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · 9 citations
with Ana Beatriz Galvão
Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates
published 2022 · International Journal of Forecasting · 5 citations
Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States
published 2022 · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · 15 citations
Measuring and Communicating the Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics
published 2021 · Journal of Official Statistics · 3 citations
with Gian Luigi Mazzi, Florabela Carausu
Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?
published 2021 · International Journal of Forecasting · 16 citations
with Ana Beatriz Galvão, Anthony Garratt
NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC
published 2021 · National Institute Economic Review · 8 citations
RECONCILED ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT IN THE UK
published 2020 · National Institute Economic Review · 10 citations
Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970
published 2019 · Journal of Applied Econometrics · 54 citations
UK Regional Nowcasting Using a Mixed Frequency Vector Auto-Regressive Model with Entropic Tilting
published 2019 · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · 31 citations
R 2 Bounds for Predictive Models: What Univariate Properties Tell us About Multivariate Predictability
published 2017 · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · 8 citations
with D. H. Robertson, Stephen H. Wright
Generalised density forecast combinations
published 2015 · Journal of Econometrics · 88 citations · first circulated 2014
A nonlinear panel data model of cross-sectional dependence
published 2014 · Journal of Econometrics · 42 citations · first circulated 2010
Discussion of “Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis” by Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
published 2014 · International Journal of Forecasting · 1 citations
Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty
published 2013 · International Journal of Forecasting · 3 citations · first circulated 2011
with Anthony Garratt, Shaun P. Vahey
Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro‐Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession*
published 2013 · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · 38 citations
with Gian Luigi Mazzi, Gaetana Montana
Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain
published 2012 · Explorations in Economic History · 40 citations · first circulated 2011
with Solomos Solomou, Martin Weale
EFFICIENT AGGREGATION OF PANEL QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA
published 2012 · Journal of Applied Econometrics · 5 citations · first circulated 2011
with Richard J. Smith, Martin Weale
Endogenous financial risk : The seventh international conference of the NBB
published 2012 · Econometric Reviews
with Hans Dewachter, Grégory de Walque, Marina Emiris, Pelin Ilbas, Raf Wouters
no link
The Drivers of International Migration to the UK: A Panel‐based Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
published 2011 · The Economic Journal · 39 citations
with Nigel Pain, Rebecca Riley
Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities
published 2011 · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · 41 citations · first circulated 2009
with Ida Wolden Bache, Anne Sofie Jore, Shaun P. Vahey
The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative–quantitative UK surveys
published 2011 · International Journal of Forecasting · 36 citations · first circulated 2009
with Silvia Lui, Martin Weale
Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves
published 2010 · The North American Journal of Economics and Finance · 35 citations · first circulated 2009
with Anthony Garratt, Shaun P. Vahey, Elizabeth C. Wakerly
Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?
published 2010 · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · 52 citations · first circulated 2008
with Silvia Lui, Martin Weale
Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness
published 2010 · Journal of Applied Econometrics · 154 citations · first circulated 2008
with Kenneth F. Wallis
Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities
published 2010 · Journal of Applied Econometrics · 183 citations · first circulated 2008
with Anne Sofie Jore, Shaun P. Vahey, Anne-Sofie Jore
Architects as Nowcasters of Housing Construction
published 2009 · National Institute Economic Review · 2 citations
with Mark J. Holmes, Brian Silverstone
Confidence and Leading Indicators: Introduction
published 2009 · National Institute Economic Review
WHERE ARE WE NOW? THE UK RECESSION AND NOWCASTING GDP GROWTH USING STATISTICAL MODELS
published 2009 · National Institute Economic Review · 23 citations
Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data
published 2009 · Journal of Forecasting · 12 citations · first circulated 2007
with Troy Matheson, Brian Silverstone
Incidence-Based Estimates of Life Expectancy of the Healthy for the UK: Coherence Between Transition Probabilities and Aggregate Life-Tables
published 2008 · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · 16 citations
with Ehsan Khoman, Martin Weale
Introduction: Recent Developments in Economic Forecasting
published 2008 · National Institute Economic Review
Combining density forecasts
published 2007 · International Journal of Forecasting · 321 citations
with Stephen G. Hall
Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data
published 2006 · Economics Letters · 23 citations · first circulated 2005
with Kostas Mouratidis, Martin Weale
Prudence and UK Trend Growth
published 2006 · National Institute Economic Review · 6 citations
with Simon Kirby
Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR ‘Fan’ Charts of Inflation*
published 2005 · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · 218 citations
with Stephen G. Hall
FORECASTING MANUFACTURING OUTPUT GROWTH USING FIRM-LEVEL SURVEY DATA
published 2005 · Manchester School · 7 citations
The National Institute Density Forecasts of Inflation
published 2005 · National Institute Economic Review · 16 citations
Reconsidering the Evidence
published 2005 · Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis · 115 citations
An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth
published 2005 · The Economic Journal · 132 citations
with Richard J. Smith, Martin Weale, Stephen H. Wright, Eduardo Salazar
Matrix Calculus & Zero‐One Matrices; Statistical and Econometric Applications.
published 2003 · The Economic Journal · 1 citations
Business Cycles and Turning Points: A Survey of Statistical Techniques
published 2003 · National Institute Economic Review · 37 citations
Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?
published 2002 · National Institute Economic Review · 24 citations
The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations
published 2002 · Economics Letters · 32 citations
Quantification of Qualitative Firm‐Level Survey Data
published 2002 · The Economic Journal · 9 citations · first circulated 2001
with Richard J. Smith, Martin Weale
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