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Almost Uniform Bias Correction for Persistent Panel Local Projections

Geert Dhaene, Arturas Juodis

arXiv 19 Oct 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2610.26427 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

Panel local projections are widely used to estimate impulse responses in policy analysis. This paper examines the properties of the fixed-effect estimator and various bias-correction methods in panel local projections, focusing on settings with autoregressive control variables. We analyze the bias and variance of these estimators while allowing for persistence in both the target and control variables. Our theoretical findings indicate that the half-panel jackknife has desirable bias-reducing properties beyond the stationary setup. For empirical researchers, we recommend using bias-correction-adjusted standard errors to account for the sampling uncertainty associated with the half-panel jackknife estimator, regardless of the time-series dimension of the data.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Romer, Christina D. and Romer, David H (2017) New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries0.693101100%
2Cerra, Valerie and Saxena, Sweta Chaman (2008) Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery0.69351100%
3Edward P. Herbst and Benjamin K. Johannsen (2024) Bias in Local Projections0.68634197%
4Ziwei Mei and Liugang Sheng and Zhentao Shi (2026) Nickell Bias in Panel Local Projection: Financial Crises Are Worse Than You Think0.68139195%
5Antonio F. Galvao and Kengo Kato (2014) Estimation and Inference for Linear Panel Data Models Under Misspecification When Both n and T Are Large0.65921186%
6G. Dhaene and K. Jochmans (2015) Split-Panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-Effect Models self0.64410180%
7S. Nickell (1981) Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects0.64441100%
8G. Everaert (2026) Incidental Parameters Bias in Panel Local Projections: Non-Monotone Horizon Pattern and Correction0.64441100%
9Montiel Olea, José Luis and Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel (2021) Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think0.64441100%
10A. Juodis (2026) This Shock Is Different: Estimation and Inference in Misspecified Two-Way Fixed Effects Panel Regressions self0.58531100%

Showing the top 10 of 41 scored citations.