Optimal Allocation and Volume under Surface

Kai Feng, Han Hong, Jessie Li, Wenshi Wei

arXiv 30 Sep 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2609.38875 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper develops a framework for estimation and inference on the volumes of sets that are projections of critical function sets, focusing particularly on the convex body beneath the optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface. Specifically, we propose a volume calculation method that first uses an Aumann expectation representation and then applies Minkowski mixed volumes. Using this framework, we show that the population volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is proportional to the expectation of a symmetric U-statistic kernel. We then propose a double/debiased machine learning estimator of the VUS, derive its asymptotic properties, and develop an inference procedure. Further applications of this framework include an analysis of the feasible error set across pre-defined groups and a natural generalization of the Gini coefficient for measuring inequality.

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