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Recursive-Head Geometry and Order-Free Efficient Inference in Finite-State Nested Markov Models

Haoyu Wei

arXiv 15 Sep 2026 · Mathematics — Statistics Theory

arXiv:2609.17939 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

Exploiting the equality restrictions that nested Markov models encode requires their tangent-space geometry. For strictly positive finite-state models on arbitrary acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), we differentiate the recursive-head chart and prove that the range of its score map is the full tangent space. Intrinsic-set coordinate blocks form an algebraic direct sum, blocks of distinct districts are orthogonal, and the resulting Gram projection needs neither mb-shieldedness nor a district order. Exact counterexamples show that observational centering and kernel normalization alone do not certify tangency. For the node, complete-source edge, and compatible path-specific intervention targets considered here, boundary substitution yields a normalized configured active law and an order-free canonical-gradient formula, extended to finite mixtures by independent source redraws. A coherent one-step estimator with an exact remainder identity and a model-valid chart-flow targeted maximum likelihood estimator are efficient under stated local conditions. On a narrower source-isolated fixed-node subclass, a sequential estimator has an exact transition-factorized drift and up to $2^m$ nuisance-correctness regimes over $m$ active-district transitions; its all-correct influence function projects onto the canonical gradient, and an exact rational law exhibits a strict variance gap. These results separate order-free efficiency on arbitrary finite-state ADMGs from multiple robustness of a narrower construction.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bhattacharya, Rohit and Nabi, Razieh and Shpitser, Ilya (2022) Semiparametric inference for causal effects in graphical models with hidden variables1.00074100%
2Shpitser, Ilya and Sherman, Eli (2018) Identification of personalized effects associated with causal pathways0.8746367%
3Evans, Robin J (2018) Margins of discrete Bayesian networks0.8434375%
4Shpitser, Ilya (2013) Counterfactual graphical models for longitudinal mediation analysis with unobserved confounding0.8434375%
5Shpitser, Ilya and Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J (2016) Causal inference with a graphical hierarchy of interventions0.8434375%
6Evans, Robin J and Richardson, Thomas S (2019) Smooth, identifiable supermodels of discrete DAG models with latent variables0.75753543%
7Zhou, Xiang (2022) Semiparametric estimation for causal mediation analysis with multiple causally ordered mediators0.7373367%
8Richardson, Thomas S and Evans, Robin J and Robins, James M and Shpi… (2023) Nested Markov properties for acyclic directed mixed graphs0.70540535%
9van der Laan, Mark J. and Gruber, Susan (2016) One-Step Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimation Based on Universal Least Favorable One-Dimensional Submodels0.64422100%
10Avin, Chen and Shpitser, Ilya and Pearl, Judea (2005) Identifiability of path-specific effects0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 27 scored citations.