EconBase
← All papers

Causal Inference under Dynamic Selection: Time-Varying Covariates and Latent Heterogeneity

Weisheng Zhang

arXiv 15 Sep 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2609.17170 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

I study dynamic treatment effects in panel data under staggered adoption when treatment timing depends jointly on unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and time-varying pretreatment covariates, including lagged outcomes. Untreated potential outcomes follow a nonparametric dynamic panel model that allows flexible interactions between time-varying covariates and latent heterogeneity. I use pretreatment outcome histories to find individuals with similar time-invariant latent factors, and the key requirement is that these histories are sufficiently informative about those latent factors. I develop an identification strategy for the dynamic average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and propose kernel-based doubly robust estimators for the dynamic ATT. I further combine double cross-fitting with undersmoothing and show that, under suitable regularity conditions, the proposed estimators are $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically unbiased. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed method provides accurate inference across a wide range of data-generating processes. I illustrate the method with an application to the U.S. family planning program studied by Bailey (2012) and reestimate its effect on fertility rates.

Citation extraction

70
references
151
in-text mentions
70
distinct cited
1
self-citations
22,816
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 50% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Deaner, Ben and Hsiang, Chen-Wei and Zeleneev, Andrei (2025) Inferring treatment effects in large panels by uncovering latent similarities1.000155100%
2Bailey, Martha J (2012) Reexamining the impact of family planning programs on US fertility: evidence from the War on Poverty and the early years of Titl…1.000143100%
3Feng, Yingjie (2023) Optimal Estimation of Large-Dimensional Nonlinear Factor Models1.00094100%
4Arkhangelsky, Dmitry and Imbens, Guido (2024) Causal models for longitudinal and panel data: A survey0.87462100%
5Viviano, Davide and Bradic, Jelena (2026) Dynamic covariate balancing: estimating treatment effects over time with potential local projections0.84333100%
6Feng, Yingjie (2020) Causal inference in possibly nonlinear factor models0.81142100%
7Sant’Anna, Pedro HC and Zhao, Jun (2020) Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators0.81142100%
8Abadie, Alberto (2005) Semiparametric difference-in-differences estimators0.73732100%
9Ashenfelter, Orley C and Card, David (1985) Using the longitudinal structure of earnings to estimate the effect of training programs0.73732100%
10Athey, Susan and Imbens, Guido (2025) Identification of average treatment effects in nonparametric panel models0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 70 scored citations.