Yuchen Hu
arXiv 12 Sep 2026 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2609.13698 · PDF · Extracted main text
A switchback experiment alternates an entire system between treatment and control over time. It is especially useful when interactions between units can undermine standard unit-level experiments. Switchback experiments are commonly implemented on fixed temporal grids, which impose highly structured restrictions on when treatment can switch. We study a broader class of random-duration switchbacks, in which treatment and control alternate across runs whose durations are drawn from a common distribution. Under finite carryover, we show that the mean squared error of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator has a simple frequency-domain representation governed by how temporal outcome patterns align with design-induced imbalance and contamination patterns. This representation yields a tractable worst-case design criterion that can be computed directly from the duration distribution. Optimizing over even a simple two-rate family produces a run-age-dependent switching rule that reduces the asymptotic worst-case mean squared error by at least 32% relative to the standard independently randomized fixed-block switchback.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bojinov, Iavor and Simchi-Levi, David and Zhao, Jinglong (2023) Design and analysis of switchback experiments | 1.000 | 9 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Xiong, Ruoxuan and Chin, Alex and Taylor, Sean (2023) Bias-Variance Tradeoffs for Designing Simultaneous Temporal Experiments | 1.000 | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Hu, Yuchen and Wager, Stefan (2022) Switchback Experiments under Geometric Mixing self | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Ross, Sheldon M (1996) Stochastic Processes | 0.874 | 6 | 5 | 67% |
| 5 | Bojinov, Iavor and Shephard, Neil (2019) Time Series Experiments and Causal Estimands: Exact Randomization Tests and Trading | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
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| 7 | Kastelman, David and Ramesh, Raghav (2018) Switchback tests and randomized experimentation under network effects at DoorDash | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Basse, Guillaume W. and Ding, Yi and Toulis, Panos (2023) Minimax Designs for Causal Effects in Temporal Experiments with Treatment Habituation | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Ugander, Johan and Karrer, Brian and Backstrom, Lars and Kleinberg,… (2013) Graph Cluster Randomization: Network Exposure to Multiple Universes | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Wager, Stefan (2026) Causal Inference: A Statistical Learning Approach | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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