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Spectral Design of Random-Duration Switchbacks

Yuchen Hu

arXiv 12 Sep 2026 · Statistics — Methodology

arXiv:2609.13698 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

A switchback experiment alternates an entire system between treatment and control over time. It is especially useful when interactions between units can undermine standard unit-level experiments. Switchback experiments are commonly implemented on fixed temporal grids, which impose highly structured restrictions on when treatment can switch. We study a broader class of random-duration switchbacks, in which treatment and control alternate across runs whose durations are drawn from a common distribution. Under finite carryover, we show that the mean squared error of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator has a simple frequency-domain representation governed by how temporal outcome patterns align with design-induced imbalance and contamination patterns. This representation yields a tractable worst-case design criterion that can be computed directly from the duration distribution. Optimizing over even a simple two-rate family produces a run-age-dependent switching rule that reduces the asymptotic worst-case mean squared error by at least 32% relative to the standard independently randomized fixed-block switchback.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bojinov, Iavor and Simchi-Levi, David and Zhao, Jinglong (2023) Design and analysis of switchback experiments1.00094100%
2Xiong, Ruoxuan and Chin, Alex and Taylor, Sean (2023) Bias-Variance Tradeoffs for Designing Simultaneous Temporal Experiments1.00063100%
3Hu, Yuchen and Wager, Stefan (2022) Switchback Experiments under Geometric Mixing self0.92843100%
4Ross, Sheldon M (1996) Stochastic Processes0.8746567%
5Bojinov, Iavor and Shephard, Neil (2019) Time Series Experiments and Causal Estimands: Exact Randomization Tests and Trading0.81142100%
6Guo, Wenxuan and Liang, Tengyuan (2026) Experimental Design When N Equals One0.73732100%
7Kastelman, David and Ramesh, Raghav (2018) Switchback tests and randomized experimentation under network effects at DoorDash0.64441100%
8Basse, Guillaume W. and Ding, Yi and Toulis, Panos (2023) Minimax Designs for Causal Effects in Temporal Experiments with Treatment Habituation0.64422100%
9Ugander, Johan and Karrer, Brian and Backstrom, Lars and Kleinberg,… (2013) Graph Cluster Randomization: Network Exposure to Multiple Universes0.64422100%
10Wager, Stefan (2026) Causal Inference: A Statistical Learning Approach0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 42 scored citations.