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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Masahiro Kato, Daiki Honma, Taka Kato

arXiv 10 Sep 2026 · Statistics — Machine Learning

arXiv:2609.11915 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence changes how firms reach customers, but standard marketing data do not record how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers. We develop Generative Marketing Mix Modeling (GMMM) to estimate the causal effects of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and Generative Engine Marketing (GEM). For GEO, GMMM combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of use across generative systems, and notice probabilities. For GEM, it combines records of sponsored placements with notice probabilities. GMMM compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences and establishes sufficient conditions for identifying the resulting effects. We investigate the empirical performance of the proposed method using simulated answers to product recommendation in English and Japanese.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Pierre E. Jacob, Lawrence M. Murray, Chris C. Holmes, and Christian… Better together? statistical learning in models made of modules, 20170.64422100%
2Yuxue Jin, Yueqing Wang, Yunting Sun, David Chan, and Jim Koehler (2017) Bayesian methods for media mix modeling with carryover and shape effects0.64422100%
3Martyn Plummer (2015) Cuts in bayesian graphical models0.64422100%
4James Robins (1987) A graphical approach to the identification and estimation of causal parameters in mortality studies with sustained exposure peri…0.51121100%
5Adivit Acharya, Matthew Blackwell, and Maya Sen (2016) Explaining causal findings without bias: Detecting and assessing direct effects0.40511100%
6Pranjal Aggarwal, Vishvak Murahari, Tanmay Rajpurohit, Ashwin Kalyan… (2024) Geo: Generative engine optimization0.40511100%
7Puneet S. Bagga, Vivek F. Farias, Tamar Korkotashvili, Tianyi Peng,… (2026) E-geo: A testbed for generative engine optimization in e-commerce, 20260.40511100%
8Christian Carmona and Geoff Nicholls (2020) Semi-modular inference: enhanced learning in multi-modular models by tempering the influence of components0.40511100%
9David Chan and Mike Perry (2017) Challenges and opportunities in media mix modeling0.40511100%
10Aiyou Chen and Timothy C. Au (2022) Robust causal inference for incremental return on ad spend with randomized paired geo experiments0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 36 scored citations.