arXiv 7 Sep 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2609.06907 · PDF · Extracted main text
Sign restrictions on the slopes of supply and demand curves are often used to identify historical decompositions in structural vector autoregressions. I show that the identifying power of these restrictions depends on both reduced-form parameters and realised forecast errors. Consequently, unlike many other structural objects, the strength of identification cannot be assessed from reduced-form parameters alone. Empirically, identified sets for historical decompositions of US inflation are typically largely uninformative, both in aggregate and in most expenditure categories. Existing inflation decompositions are therefore sensitive to auxiliary assumptions used to select among observationally equivalent models.
appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shapiro, A. H (2026) Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Giannone, D. and G. E. Primiceri (2024) The Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation, Working Paper 32859, National Bureau of Economic Research | 1.000 | 6 | 5 | 100% |
| 3 | Bergholt, D., F. Canova, F. Furlanetto, N. Maffei-Faccioli, and P. U… | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| Montiel-Olea_Nesbit_2021 | unmatched citation key Montiel-Olea_Nesbit_2021 | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Baumeister, C. and J. D. Hamilton (2015) Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Uhlig, H (2017) Shocks, Sign Restrictions, and Identification, in | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Giacomini, R., T. Kitagawa, and M. Read (2022) Narrative Restrictions and Proxies: Rejoinder | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Inoue, A. and L. Kilian (2026) When Is the Use of Gaussian-Inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate? | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Antolín-Díaz, J. and J. F. Rubio-Ramírez (2018) Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Giacomini, R. and T. Kitagawa (2021) Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-identified Models | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 39 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.