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Beyond Aggregate VARs: A Bayesian Benchmark for HANK Models

Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Christian Matthes

arXiv 6 Sep 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2609.06827 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) models characterize how entire cross-sectional distributions respond to structural shocks. Traditional representative-agent models are routinely disciplined by impulse responses from aggregate vector autoregressions (VARs). HANK models have no comparable established empirical benchmark because they make predictions not only about aggregates, but also about distributions of micro-level data. We propose a Bayesian benchmark that jointly models macroeconomic aggregates and several marginal distributions from repeated cross sections, including distributions observed in different surveys. Our approach can use both standard structural VAR identification approaches on macroeconomic aggregates and identification restrictions imposed on micro-level data. The model delivers a joint posterior of the distributional effects of shocks, without the need for household panel data or a separate first-stage density estimate.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chang M, Chen X, and Schorfheide F (2024) Heterogeneity and aggregate fluctuations0.9507486%
2Baumeister C, and Hamilton JD (2018) Inference in structural vector autoregressions when the identifying assumptions are not fully believed: Re-evaluating the role o…0.9285380%
3Bayer C, Born B, and Luetticke R (2024) Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles0.92843100%
4Auclert A (2019) Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel0.84333100%
5Kaplan G, Moll B, and Violante GL (2018) Monetary Policy According to HANK0.84333100%
6Chang M, and Schorfheide F (2026) On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income and Consumption Heterogeneity0.81142100%
7Auclert A, Bardóczy B, Rognlie M, and Straub L (2021) Using the Sequence-Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous-Agent Models0.73732100%
8Makalic E, and Schmidt DF (2016) A Simple Sampler for the Horseshoe Estimator0.6443267%
9Frühwirth-Schnatter S (2006) Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models0.64422100%
10Auclert A, Rognlie M, and Straub L (2024) The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 60 scored citations.