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Redefining Stablecoins from Nominal to Real Value: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Tomonori Kanno, Kensuke Ito, Yushi Yoshimura, Kyohei Shibano

arXiv 31 Aug 2026 · cs.CE

arXiv:2608.30225 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

Stablecoins, typically pegged to fiat currencies, cannot achieve true stability because they inherit fluctuations in the underlying unit of account. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a stablecoin pegged to the Maximum Likelihood Value (MLV), a newly defined unit of account derived as the most probable configuration of latent real-value movements that explains observed nominal-value (price) changes. Grounded in inferential statistics and modern portfolio theory, MLV represents the most stable unit of account, as it enforces a zero real return on the minimum-variance portfolio. Empirical results confirm the operational viability of an MLV-pegged stablecoin: MLV can be computed in real time from 500 asset price series and improves annualized returns and Sharpe ratios while substantially reducing turnover in portfolio optimization.

Citation extraction

52
references
56
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 88% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Irving Fisher (1913) A compensated dollar0.64422100%
2Nikolai V Hovanov, James W Kolari, and Mikhail V Sokolov (2004) Computing currency invariant indices with an application to minimum variance currency baskets0.64422100%
3David E Tyler (1987) A distribution-free M-estimator of multivariate scatter0.5112250%
4Lok Sang Ho (2018) In search of a unit of stable global purchasing power0.51121100%
5Michael Adler and Nahum Biger (1975) The assessment of inflation and portfolio selection0.40511100%
6Michael Adler and Bernard Dumas (1983) International portfolio choice and corporation finance: A synthesis0.40511100%
7Nader Al-Naji, Josh Chen, and Lawrence Diao (2017) Basis: a price-stable cryptocurrency with an algorithmic central bank0.40511100%
8Lennart Ante, Ingo Fiedler, Jan Marius Willruth, and Fred Steinmetz (2023) A systematic literature review of empirical research on stablecoins0.40511100%
9The Libra Association (2019) Libra White Paper : The Libra Association : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive –- archive.org0.40511100%
10DW Arner, R Auer, and J Frost (2020) Stablecoins: risks, potential and regulation (BIS Working Papers No. 905)0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 52 scored citations.