Masayuki Haruhara
arXiv 21 Aug 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2608.20779 · PDF · Extracted main text
We study causal moderation when treatment assignment is randomized but the moderator is not. We combine the parallel estimation framework with front-door adjustment to identify an average mediated treatment moderation effect. We apply this approach to 165 municipal assembly elections in Tokyo (1987-2023), where pamphlet positions are assigned by lottery and total pamphlet pages are mechanically determined by candidate set size and fixed municipal rules. One additional candidate increases the front-page effect on winning probability by 0.322 percentage points through the page-count channel, 8.0% of its baseline magnitude, while the back-page effect does not increase significantly.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haruhara, Masayuki and Haruhara, Miho and Ishii, Yuki and Katayama,… (2026) Unintended Inequality: A Pitfall of Electoral Systems Driven by Information Acquisition Costs self | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Cunow, Saul and Desposato, Scott and Janusz, Andrew and Sells, Cameron (2021) Less is more: The paradox of choice in voting behavior | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Bansak, Kirk (2021) Estimating causal moderation effects with randomized treatments and non-randomized moderators | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Goidel, Spencer and Armstrong, Brenna (2025) Choice overload in crowded primary elections | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Bellemare, Marc F and Bloem, Jeffrey R and Wexler, Noah (2024) The Paper of How: Estimating Treatment Effects Using the Front-Door Criterion | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Pearl, Judea (1995) Causal diagrams for empirical research | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Söderlund, Peter and Von Schoultz, Åsa and Papageorgiou, Achillefs (2021) Coping with complexity: Ballot position effects in the Finnish open-list proportional representation system | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Iyengar, Sheena S and Lepper, Mark R (2000) When choice is demotivating: Can one desire too much of a good thing? | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Meredith, Marc and Salant, Yuval (2013) On the causes and consequences of ballot order effects | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Payne, John W. and Bettman, James R. and Johnson, Eric J (1993) The Adaptive Decision Maker | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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