Fernando Delbianco, Federico Fioravanti, Fernando Tohmé
arXiv 17 Aug 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2608.16325 · PDF · Extracted main text
We ask whether COVID-19 lockdown stringency altered national Olympic performance between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, using the Oxford Stringency Index and the 99 countries that won a medal in either edition. As in \citet{liu2024}, mean performance is unaffected: stringency is insignificant in every OLS and ANOVA specification. The distribution is not. Among the 84 non-traditionally dominant nations, medal changes are three to six times more dispersed in high-stringency countries; the difference is absent among dominant nations and concentrated in men's events. A common shock left the competitive hierarchy intact while sharply raising outcome uncertainty for smaller Olympic teams.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liu, Xuepeng and Ornelas, Emanuel and Shi, Huimin (2024) Was COVID-19 a Game Changer for the Tokyo and Beijing Olympics? | 0.928 | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Baimbridge, Mark (1998) Outcome Uncertainty in Sporting Competition: The Olympic Games 1896–1996 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Kufenko, Vadim and Geloso, Vincent (2021) Who Are the Champions? Inequality, Economic Freedom and the Olympics | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Schlembach, Christoph and Schmidt, Sascha L. and Schreyer, Dominik a… (2022) Forecasting the Olympic Medal Distribution–-A Socioeconomic Machine Learning Model | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Fernando Delbianco and Federico Fioravanti and Fernando Tohmé (2023) Home Advantage and Crowd Attendance: Evidence from Rugby During the Covid 19 Pandemic self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Abadie, Alberto (2020) Statistical Nonsignificance in Empirical Economics | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Alon, Titan and Doepke, Matthias and Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane and Terti… (2020) The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Berdahl, Jennifer L. and Uhlmann, Eric Luis and Bai, Feng (2015) Win-Win: Female and Male Athletes from More Gender Equal Nations Perform Better in International Sports Competitions | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Bernard, Andrew B. and Busse, Meghan R (2004) Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Csurilla, Gergely and Fert o, Imre (2022) How Long Does a Medal Win Last? Survival Analysis of the Duration of Olympic Success | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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