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Parameter Identification in Autoregressions under Discrete Sampling or Temporal Aggregation

Marko Mlikota

arXiv 13 Aug 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2608.13224 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

I consider an AR($p$) process that is observed every $q$ periods, either as a snapshot (stock variable) or as a sum over the sampling interval (flow variable). Under fairly mild assumptions, I derive the identified set for general lag lengths $p \in \mathbb{N}$ and sampling frequencies $q \in \mathbb{N}$, I bound its cardinality, and I provide a recipe to compute all candidate points and determine their membership in the identified set. My analysis supports the following conjecture: (i) the error term-variance is point-identified, (ii) under temporal aggregation, the autoregressive parameters are point-identified, and (iii) under discrete sampling they are point-identified for odd sampling frequencies and identified up to alternating sign for even sampling frequencies. I prove this conjecture in some settings and verify it numerically more broadly.

Citation extraction

25
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Palm, F. C. and T. E. Nijman (1984) Missing Observations in the Dynamic Regression Model1.000174100%
2Nijman, T. E. and F. C. Palm (1990) a): Parameter Identification in Arma Processes in the Presence of Regular but Incomplete Sampling1.00083100%
3Nijman, T. E. and F. C. Palm (1985) Séries temporelles incomplètes en modélisation macroéconomique1.00053100%
4Telser, L. G (1967) Discrete Samples and Moving Sums in Stationary Stochastic Processes0.874112100%
5Amemiya, T. and R. Y. Wu (1972) The Effect of Aggregation on Prediction in the Autoregressive Model0.87482100%
6Brockwell, P. J. and R. A. Davis (1991) Time Series: Theory and Methods0.87452100%
7Brewer, K (1973) Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models0.84333100%
8Weiss, A. A (1984) Systematic sampling and temporal aggregation in time series models0.81142100%
9Phillips, P (1973) The problem of identification in finite parameter continuous time models0.64441100%
10Marcellino, M (1999) Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 25 scored citations.