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From dense grids to valid inference: Accounting for regularization bias in nonparametric random coefficient models

Lingwei Kong, Maximilian Osterhaus, Michael Pen

arXiv 28 Jul 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2607.25416 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper develops an inference procedure for average functionals of random-coefficient distributions, such as mean willingness-to-pay and average elasticities, when the distribution is estimated nonparametrically using the penalized fixed-grid estimator of Heiss, Hetzenecker, and Osterhaus (2022). We establish asymptotic normality of the corresponding penalized plug-in estimator centered at the functional evaluated at the penalized pseudo-true value and propose a confidence interval that accounts for the regularization bias. Our method applies to a broad class of linear and nonlinear functionals and allows researchers to use dense grids to reduce approximation bias while maintaining valid inference. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed intervals achieve coverage close to the nominal level while remaining informative in finite samples. An empirical application to travel mode demand illustrates that flexible nonparametric specifications can yield economically meaningful differences relative to standard parametric models.

Citation extraction

36
references
111
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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12,570
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Meijer, Erik and Rouwendal, Jan (2006) Measuring welfare effects in models with random coefficients1.00073100%
2Fox, Jeremy T and Kim, Kyoo Il and Ryan, Stephen P and Bajari, Patrick (2011) A simple estimator for the distribution of random coefficients0.97614793%
3Fox, Jeremy T and il Kim, Kyoo and Yang, Chenyu (2016) A simple nonparametric approach to estimating the distribution of random coefficients in structural models0.92843100%
4Nevo, Aviv and Turner, John L. and Williams, Jonathan W (2016) Usage-Based Pricing and Demand for Residential Broadband0.92843100%
5Heiss, Florian and Hetzenecker, Stephan and Osterhaus, Maximilian (2022) Nonparametric estimation of the random coefficients model: An elastic net approach self0.89829972%
6Chen, Xiaohong and Liao, Zhipeng and Sun, Yixiao (2014) Sieve inference on possibly misspecified semi-nonparametric time series models0.8749367%
7Bajari, Patrick and Fox, Jeremy T. and Ryan, Stephen P (2007) Linear Regression Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Nonparametric Distributions of Random Coefficients0.84333100%
8Chen, Xiaohong and Pouzo, Demian (2015) Sieve Wald and QLR inferences on semi/nonparametric conditional moment models0.81142100%
9Juan Carlos Escanciano (2023) Irregular identification of structural models with nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity0.73732100%
10Corinne Faure and Marie-Charlotte Guetlein and Joachim Schleich (2021) Effects of rescaling the EU energy label on household preferences for top-rated appliances0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 36 scored citations.