Dalia Ghanem, Felix Pretis, Daniel Schuurman
arXiv 24 Jul 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2607.22028 · PDF · Extracted main text
Understanding the degree to which we are able to adapt to climate change is central to economic assessments of future climate damages. Economists increasingly use comparisons between long differences and fixed effects estimators to measure climate adaptation. We show that such comparisons can be misleading. Neither estimator is consistent for its intended parameter, as both the long-difference (LD) and fixed effects (FE) estimands are weighted averages of the long- and short-run responses to climate and weather. As a result, the difference between the two understates the true extent of adaptation, and the standard test based on this difference --while controlling size -- tends to be substantially underpowered in the settings researchers typically encounter. An empirically-calibrated simulation shows this difference understates adaptation by about 30--80%, depending on the averaging window.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burke, Marshall and Emerick, Kyle (2016) Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture | 0.914 | 17 | 3 | 76% |
| 2 | Bento, Antonio M and Miller, Noah and Mookerjee, Mehreen and Severni… (2023) A unifying approach to measuring climate change impacts and adaptation | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Griliches, Zvi and Hausman, Jerry A (1986) Errors in variables in panel data | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Lemoine, Derek (2018) Estimating the consequences of climate change from variation in weather | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Bilal, Adrien and Känzig, Diego R (2024) The macroeconomic impact of climate change: Global vs. local temperature | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Deryugina, Tatyana and Hsiang, Solomon (2017) The marginal product of climate | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Kolstad, Charles D and Moore, Frances C (2020) Estimating the economic impacts of climate change using weather observations | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Lemoine, Derek and Hausman, Catherine and Shrader, Jeffrey G (2025) A guide to climate damages | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Auffhammer, Maximilian (2022) Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short and long run impacts of climate change on residential electricity and natural gas co… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Baylis, Patrick and Bharadwaj, Prashant and Mullins, Jamie T and Obr… (2025) Climate and migration in the United States | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 37 scored citations.