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Global factors for local shocks in a data-scarce environment: with an application to regional fiscal multipliers in Italy

Giuseppe Cavaliere, Luca Fanelli, Marco Mazzali

arXiv 15 Jul 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2607.13879 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose a novel econometric methodology for Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments (`proxy-SVARs' or `SVAR-IVs') in panel data characterized by strong cross-sectional dependence, dynamic heterogeneity, and limited availability of direct external instruments for the shocks of interest. For each unit, we specify a Factor-Augmented proxy-SVAR (`proxy-FA-SVAR') that incorporates factors summarizing cross-sectional information from the non-policy variables of the system. The effects of the policy shocks are then recovered indirectly by estimating unit-specific policy reaction functions through a Minimum Distance approach. Identification relies on global instruments for the non-policy shocks; that is, proxies common to all units in the panel, internally constructed from a separate SVAR estimated on factors for the policy and non-policy variables. These global instruments can be complemented with local (idiosyncratic) instruments constructed from auxiliary unit-level SVARs. Their joint use renders the proxy-FA-SVARs overidentified and therefore statistically testable. We illustrate the methodology by estimating government spending multipliers for Italian NUTS-2 regions using annual data. The global and local instruments for the regional output shocks are obtained from Blanchard-Perotti-type SVARs.

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43
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distinct cited
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A: Factor construction” · 96% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Angelini, Giovanni and Cavaliere, Giuseppe and Fanelli, Luca (2024) An identification and testing strategy for proxy-svars with weak proxies self1.00093100%
2Caldara, Dario and Kamps, Christophe (2017) The analytics of SVARs: a unified framework to measure fiscal multipliers0.84333100%
3Lucidi, Francesco Simone (2022) The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions0.73732100%
4Ramey, Valerie A and Zubairy, Sarah (2018) Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: evidence from US historical data0.73732100%
5Canova, Fabio (2024) Should we trust cross-sectional multiplier estimates?0.69351100%
6Bernanke, Ben S and Boivin, Jean and Eliasz, Piotr (2005) Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach0.64422100%
7Blanchard, Olivier and Perotti, Roberto (2002) An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output0.64422100%
8Deleidi, Matteo and Romaniello, Davide and Tosi, Francesca (2021) Quantifying fiscal multipliers in Italy: A Panel SVAR analysis using regional data0.64422100%
9Destefanis, Sergio and Di Serio, Mario and Fragetta, Matteo (2022) Regional multipliers across the Italian regions0.64422100%
10Mertens, Karel and Ravn, Morten O (2013) The dynamic effects of personal and corporate income tax changes in the United States0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 43 scored citations.