arXiv 15 Jul 2026 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2607.13564 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper addresses the problem of running variable manipulation in Regression Discontinuity Designs. Leveraging the observation that manipulation often alters the density balance around the cutoff, we detect these structural imbalances using Benford's Law -a natural statistical regularity widely applied in fraud detection. Our framework serves as a vital precautionary safeguard alongside traditional McCrary-type tests. It eliminates researcher-chosen parameters that can skew outcomes, while delivering a deeper diagnostic breakdown of the density's behavior. Crucially, whereas the classic McCrary test can overlook systemic imbalances due to its rigid symmetric setup, our method separates the data into directional components. This allows researchers to pinpoint the exact origin of a deviation and spot hidden manipulation that standard frameworks fail to capture. To achieve this, we introduce an innovative method for selecting a bandwidth consistent with BL, and construct two distinct, complementary tests using threshold values adapted from Nigrini (2012) that successfully transition the law's application from digits to probabilities. Empirical applications confirm the enhanced protective value of this diagnostic framework.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigrini, Mark J (2012) Benford's Law: Applications for forensic accounting, auditing, and fraud detection | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Londoño-Vélez, Juliana and Rodr\'iguez, Catherine and Sánchez, Fabio (2020) Upstream and downstream impacts of college merit-based financial aid for low-income students: Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Meyersson, Erik (2014) Islamic Rule and the Empowerment of the Poor and Pious | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Arezzo, Maria Felice and Cerqueti, Roy (2023) A Benford's Law view of inspections' reasonability self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Berger, Arno and Hill, Theodore P (2015) An introduction to Benford's law | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Cerqueti, Roy and Maggi, Mario (2021) Data validity and statistical conformity with Benford's Law self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Cano-Rodriguez, Manuel and Nunez-Nickel, Manuel and Liceran-Gutierre… (2025) Divergence from Benford's law fails to measure financial statement accuracy | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Varian, HR (1972) Benford's Law (Letters to the Editor) | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Ausloos, Marcel and Castellano, Rosella and Cerqueti, Roy (2016) Regularities and discrepancies of credit default swaps: a data science approach through Benford's law self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Ausloos, Marcel and Ficcadenti, Valerio and Dhesi, Gurjeet and Shake… (2021) Benford's laws tests on S&P500 daily closing values and the corresponding daily log-returns both point to huge non-conformity | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 32 scored citations.