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Modeling Mode and Departure Time Responses to Congestion Pricing: A Spatial and Behavioral Analysis Using Cross-Nested Logit Model

Mohammad Amin Ashena, Adam Weiss, Jason Hawkins, Lina Kattan

arXiv 29 Jun 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2606.29756 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Effective congestion management strategies require a detailed understanding of how travellers respond to different pricing interventions. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of traveller behaviour under congestion pricing scenarios, focusing specifically on mode and departure time decisions. Utilizing stated preference survey data from commuters in Calgary, Canada, three discrete choice models including Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit, and Cross-Nested Logit are developed and compared. Results indicate that the Cross-Nested Logit model provides superior behavioural realism and flexibility by capturing simultaneous substitutions across modes and departure times. Spatial analysis and elasticity assessments reveal substantial geographic variation in traveller sensitivity to pricing, particularly highlighting stronger responses among commuters travelling to high-demand central locations and during peak travel periods. Further elasticity analyses clarify behavioural patterns, identifying traveller groups with varying degrees of flexibility. Policy analyses underscore the effectiveness of targeted, dynamic tolling, particularly cordon-based pricing combined with time-specific toll adjustments, in reducing congestion levels. Additionally, the findings highlight the necessity of complementary measures, including improved transit services and targeted discounts, to ensure equitable outcomes. The findings offer targeted insights into how specific pricing strategies such as cordon, distance, and travel time-based tolls can be used to influence travel behaviour, reduce peak-period congestion, and guide equitable policy design in urban transportation planning.

Citation extraction

41
references
60
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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self-citations
16,891
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Papola, A (2004) Some developments on the cross-nested logit model0.81142100%
2Ding, C., Mishra, S., Lin, Y., Xie, B (2015) Cross-nested joint model of travel mode and departure time choice for urban commuting trips: Case study in Maryland–Washington,…0.73732100%
3Wen, C.-H., Koppelman, F.S (2001) The generalized nested logit model0.73732100%
4Simoni, M.D., Kockelman, K.M., Gurumurthy, K.M., Bischoff, J (2019) Congestion pricing in a world of self-driving vehicles: An analysis of different strategies in alternative future scenarios0.64422100%
5Geng, K., Wang, Y., Cherchi, E., Guarda, P (2023) Commuter departure time choice behavior under congestion charge: Analysis based on cumulative prospect theory0.58531100%
6Train, K.E (2009) Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation0.58531100%
7Bajwa, S., Bekhor, S., Kuwahara, M., Chung, E (2008) Discrete choice modeling of combined mode and departure time0.51121100%
8Bierlaire, M (2006) A theoretical analysis of the cross-nested logit model0.51121100%
9He, B.Y., Ma, T., Dong, K., Scott, D.M., Miller, E.J (2021) A MATSim-based test bed for congestion pricing: Insights from the New York City case0.51121100%
10Hossain, S., Hasnine, M.S., Habib, K.N (2021) A latent class joint mode and departure time choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 41 scored citations.