Seungjin Han, Julius Owusu, Youngki Shin
arXiv 17 Jun 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2606.18590 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
In this paper, we study how to rank a finite set of treatment saturations for a target population with clustered network interference. We propose an empirical success (ES) ranking rule that, for each pair of saturations, selects the saturation level with the higher estimated welfare using data from a two-stage randomized saturation design. We adopt the statistical decision theory framework with additively separable regret loss to assess the performance of the ES ranking rule. We derive non-asymptotic upper bounds on the maximum regret of the ES ranking rule that depend on the within-cluster network only through a single combinatorial summary of its dependency structure. We exploit these bounds to characterize a quasi-optimal first-stage saturation distribution within the two-stage randomized saturation design. We further show that the ES ranking rule is asymptotically optimal among threshold ranking rules in the sense of minimizing an upper bound on the worst-case regret.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manski, C. F (2004) Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations | 1.000 | 9 | 5 | 100% |
| 2 | Baird, S., J. A. Bohren, C. McIntosh, and B. Özler (2018) Optimal design of experiments in the presence of interference | 1.000 | 8 | 4 | 100% |
| 3 | Hirano, K. and J. R. Porter (2009) Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules | 0.909 | 8 | 3 | 75% |
| 4 | Manski, C. F. and A. Tetenov (2016) Sufficient trial size to inform clinical practice | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Cohen, A. and H. B. Sackrowitz (2005) Decision theory results for one-sided multiple comparison procedures | 0.714 | 11 | 4 | 36% |
| 6 | Hudgens, M. G. and M. E. Halloran (2008) Toward causal inference with interference | 0.693 | 6 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Crépon, B., E. Duflo, M. Gurgand, R. Rathelot, and P. Zamora (2013) Do labor market policies have displacement effects? Evidence from a clustered randomized experiment | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Manski, C. F (1993) Identification of endogenous social effects: The reflection problem | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Tetenov, A (2012) Statistical treatment choice based on asymmetric minimax regret criteria | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Janson, S (2004) Large deviations for sums of partly dependent random variables | 0.585 | 10 | 3 | 20% |
Showing the top 10 of 43 scored citations.