Chenyu Qiu, Xu Kuang, Inessa Liskovich, Ali Rauh, Stefan Wager
arXiv 10 Jun 2026 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2606.11526 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We describe Chronos LTV, a system to measure the long-term impact of delays and other service defects on key business metrics. We use Markov decision processes to model customer interactions over time, and formalize our target estimand as the marginal policy effect with respect to moving the average delay rate. Given this setup, we show that we can identify long-term effects under a sequential unconfoundedness assumption where delays are as good as random given observed order characteristics; and can estimate these effects using a simple covariate-balancing algorithm.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johari, Ramesh and Peng, Tianyi and Xing, Wenqian (2025) Estimation of Treatment Effects Under Nonstationarity via the Truncated Policy Gradient Estimator | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Lai, I-han and Wager, Stefan (2026) Estimating Dynamic Marginal Policy Effects under Sequential Unconfoundedness self | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Sutton, Richard S and Barto, Andrew G (1998) Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Hu, Yuchen and Wager, Stefan (2022) Switchback experiments under geometric mixing self | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Farias, Vivek and Li, Andrew and Peng, Tianyi and Zheng, Andrew (2022) Markovian interference in experiments | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Ghosh, Aditya and Wager, Stefan (2025) Non-parametric Causal Inference in Dynamic Thresholding Designs self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Li, Shuangning and Wager, Stefan (2022) Network interference in micro-randomized trials self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Bojinov, Iavor and Simchi-Levi, David and Zhao, Jinglong (2023) Design and analysis of switchback experiments | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Robins, James (1986) A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period—application to control of the healthy w… | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Wager, Stefan (2026) Causal Inference: A Statistical Learning Approach self | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 33 scored citations.