Marcelo Gallardo, Nicolas Velarde, Cristina Gutarra
arXiv 1 Jun 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2606.01687 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We study how election-night flash estimates shape voting in Peru's fragmented 2026 presidential election. We exploit a natural experiment: on April 12, 2026, 187 polling tables across 13 voting centers failed to install, and the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) extended voting for the affected $\approx\!55 000$ electors to Monday, April 13. These voters cast ballots after observing the Ipsos and Datum flash estimates; otherwise comparable Sunday voters did not. A Bayesian-updating model of multi-candidate plurality voting frames the analysis, yielding predictions about vote reallocation toward the three candidates the estimates rendered viable -- López Aliaga, Sánchez, and Nieto. We estimate treatment effects on candidate vote shares at both the acta level and the acta-weighted polling-station level, comparing treated and control locales de votación matched on pre-treatment covariates. How flash estimates reshape voting is of first-order importance for Peru, given its institutional instability and high political volatility over the past decade.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackwell, David (1953) Equivalent Comparisons of Experiments | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Zubizarreta, José R. and Paredes, Ricardo D. and Rosenbaum, Paul R (2014) Matching for Balance, Pairing for Heterogeneity in an Observational Study of the Effectiveness of For-Profit and Not-for-Profit… | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Martinelli, César (2026) El Perú es un archipiélago | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Page, Lindsay C. and Lenard, Matthew A. and Keele, Luke (2020) The Design of Clustered Observational Studies in Education | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Visconti, Giancarlo and Zubizarreta, José R (2018) Handling Limited Overlap in Observational Studies with Cardinality Matching | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Barrenechea, Rodrigo and Vergara, Alberto (2023) Peru: The Danger of Powerless Democracy | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Gentzkow, Matthew and Kamenica, Emir (2017) Competition in Persuasion | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Infobae Perú (2026) Rafael López Aliaga cae a 10% en la intención de voto tras la elección de José Balcázar | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Kamenica, Emir and Gentzkow, Matthew (2011) Bayesian Persuasion | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Train, Kenneth E (2009) Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 42 scored citations.