D. Bor, E. J. Oughton, R. S. Weigel, R. Yang, T. Clower, A. Newman, A. R. Valle
arXiv 21 May 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2605.23053 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Modern economies depend critically on high-voltage power transmission networks. Yet this infrastructure is routinely disrupted by natural hazards ranging from earthquakes and floods to tornadoes and geomagnetic storms. Risk assessments have historically addressed hazards in isolation, leaving no common basis for comparing economic impacts across the full hazard portfolio. This study addresses this gap by developing an integrated framework linking hazard characterization, fragility modeling, and macroeconomic impact propagation. The framework is applied consistently across nine primary hazards and one compound freezing rain and wind gust hazard. Using national hazard datasets and a US high-voltage transmission network of over 13,000 line segments and 10,000 substations, we derive failure probabilities, expected damage, affected population, and downstream economic output losses. Among individual hazards, tropical cyclone wind produces the largest expected daily damage at $137 M/day, followed by lightning at $87 M/day, earthquake at $47 M/day, flood at $46 M/day, tornado at $42 M/day, and landslide at $34 M/day. Downstream economic output losses are largest for tornado at $4.93 B/day, followed by flood at $3.59 B/day and earthquake at $3.02 B/day. A 250-year geomagnetic storm produces $2.07 B/day, placing space weather within the range of major terrestrial hazards. The compound freezing rain and wind gust scenario produces the largest stress-test disruption, affecting 237.4 M people and yielding a modeled downstream output loss of $85.16 B/day. These results should be interpreted as first-order bounding estimates, with the compound scenario representing an upper-bound stress test. Overall, the framework establishes a consistent baseline for prioritizing investments in transmission network resilience.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braik, Abdullah M. and Salman, Abdullahi M. and Li, Yue (2019) Risk-Based Reliability and Cost Analysis of Utility Poles Subjected to Tornado Hazard | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Oughton, Edward J. and Bor, Dennies K. and Weigel, Robert and Gaunt,… (2025) Major Space Weather Risks Identified Via Coupled Physics-Engineering-Economic Modeling self | 0.874 | 13 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Kabre, Wilfried W. and Weimar, Mark R (2022) Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation | 0.874 | 7 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Coburn, Jacob and Barthelmie, Rebecca J and Pryor, Sara C (2024) Quantifying the compound hazard of freezing rain and wind gusts across CONUS | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Karagiannakis, George and Panteli, Mathaios and Argyroudis, Sotirios (2025) Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 6 | Vahedi, Soroush and Zhao, Junbo and Pierre, Brian and Lei, Fangni an… (2025) Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 7 | FEMA (2022) Hazus Earthquake Model Technical Manual, Hazus 5.1 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | MISO (2024) Transmission Cost Estimation Guide for MTEP24 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | BEA (2023) BEA Interactive Data Application | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Bloemendaal, Nadia and de Moel, Hans and Martinez, Andrew B. and Mui… (2022) A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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