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Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices

Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson, Dominik Rothenhäusler, Jeremy Ferwerda, Jens Hainmueller, Michael Hotard

arXiv 25 Apr 2026 · Machine Learning

arXiv:2605.06686 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context of refugee matching in the United States using a range of off-policy evaluation methods. In order to estimate counterfactual impact and test the robustness of our results, we employ several evaluation methods, including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple variants of augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW). We also consider various modifications, including alternative modeling architectures and different assignment procedures. The impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude in all scenarios as well as statistically significant in most cases. Furthermore, the estimates are also consistent with the results originally presented in Bansak et al. (2018).

Citation extraction

16
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bansak, K., Ferwerda, J., Hainmueller, J., Dillon, A., Hangartner, D… (2018) Improving refugee integration through data-driven algorithmic assignment self0.97715693%
2Andrews, I., Kitagawa, T., and McCloskey, A (2024) Inference on winners0.64422100%
3Bansak, K., Lee, S., Manshadi, V., Niazadeh, R., and Paulson, E (2026) Dynamic matching with post-allocation service and its application to refugee resettlement self0.64422100%
4Bastani, H., Bastani, O., and McLaughlin, B (2026) Winner's curse drives false promises in data-driven decisions: A case study in refugee matching0.51121100%
5Acharya, A., Bansak, K., and Hainmueller, J (2022) Combining outcome-based and preference-based matching: A constrained priority mechanism self0.40511100%
6Ahani, N., Andersson, T., Martinello, A., Teytelboym, A., and Trapp,… (2021) Placement optimization in refugee resettlement0.40511100%
7Ahani, N., Gölz, P., Procaccia, A. D., Teytelboym, A., and Trapp, A. C (2024) Dynamic placement in refugee resettlement0.40511100%
8Bansak, K., Paulson, E., and Rothenhäusler, D (2024) Learning under random distributional shifts self0.40511100%
9Bansak, K. and Paulson, E (2024) Outcome-driven dynamic refugee assignment with allocation balancing self0.40511100%
10Efron, B (2011) Tweedie’s formula and selection bias0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 16 scored citations.