EconBase
← All papers

Latent community paths in VAR-type models via dynamic directed spectral co-clustering

Younghoon Kim, Changryong Baek

arXiv 14 Apr 2026 · Statistics — Methodology

arXiv:2604.12563 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic network framework for uncovering latent community paths in high-dimensional VAR-type models. By embedding a degree-corrected stochastic co-blockmodel (ScBM) into the transition matrices of VAR-type systems, we separate sending and receiving roles at the node level and summarize complex directional dependence in an interpretable low-dimensional form. Our method integrates directed spectral co-clustering with eigenvector smoothing to track how directional groups split, merge, or persist over time. This framework accommodates both periodic VAR (PVAR) models for cyclical seasonal evolution and generalized VHAR models for structural transitions across ordered dependence horizons. We establish non-asymptotic misclassification bounds for both procedures and provide supporting evidence through Monte Carlo experiments. Applications to U.S.\ nonfarm payrolls distinguish a recurrent business-centered core from more mobile, seasonally sensitive sectors. In global stock volatilities, the results reveal a compact U.S.-centered long-horizon block, a Europe-heavy developed core, and a more dynamic short-horizon reallocation of peripheral and bridge markets.

Citation extraction

34
references
84
in-text mentions
34
distinct cited
3
self-citations
11,631
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 55% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Rohe, K., Qin, T., and Yu, B (2016) Co-clustering directed graphs to discover asymmetries and directional communities0.9416583%
2Baek, C. and Park, M (2021) Sparse vector heterogeneous autoregressive modeling for realized volatility self0.9285580%
3Qin, T. and Rohe, K (2013) Regularized spectral clustering under the degree-corrected stochastic blockmodel0.9285480%
4Liu, F., Choi, D., Xie, L., and Roeder, K (2018) Global spectral clustering in dynamic networks0.9285380%
5Corsi, F (2009) A simple approximate long-memory model of realized volatility0.92843100%
6Basu, S. and Michailidis, G (2015) Regularized estimation in sparse high-dimensional time series models0.86314464%
7Ursu, E. and Duchesne, P (2009) On modelling and diagnostic checking of vector periodic autoregressive time series models0.84333100%
8Gumundsson, G. S. and Brownlees, C (2021) Detecting groups in large vector autoregressions0.76911545%
9Baek, C., Davis, R. A., and Pipiras, V (2018) Periodic dynamic factor models: Estimation approaches and applications self0.64422100%
10Wang, Z., Liang, Y., and Ji, P (2020) Spectral algorithms for community detection in directed networks0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 34 scored citations.