arXiv 7 Apr 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2604.05286 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Household welfare dynamics are often difficult to investigate due to lack of long-term panel data. Existing methods, such as pseudo-panel and synthetic panel, offer widely used solutions based on repeated cross-section designs, but they do not exploit within-household variation in rotating panel designs, which provide very useful information for estimating long-run dynamics. This paper applies grouped fixed effects (GFE) to estimate poverty mobility and persistence in a rotating panel setting, using National Household Survey on Living Conditions and Poverty (ENAHO) in Peru. Using observed transitions, we show that GFE-implied poverty transitions closely track the data. In a one-step-ahead validation that holds out each household's final observed year, predicted transition shares remain close to realized transition shares, indicating that the method captures short-run entry and exit dynamics out of sample. When benchmarked against synthetic panel point estimates, the GFE approach delivers transition measures that are closer to observed transitions on average, while also providing an interpretable grouping structure that supports richer descriptions of poverty persistence and mobility.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dang, H.-A. and Lanjouw, P (2023) Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on repeated cross sections | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Dang, H.-A., Lanjouw, P., Luoto, J., and McKenzie, D (2014) Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Bonhomme, S., Lamadon, T., and Manresa, E (2022) Discretizing unobserved heterogeneity | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Aparicio-Pérez, D. and Ripollés, J (2025) Disentangling the heterogeneous effect of natural resources on economic growth | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Attanasio, O. and Székely, M (2001) Going beyond income: Redefining poverty in latin america | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Bai, J (2009) Panel data models with interactive fixed effects | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Bailar, B. A (1975) The effects of rotation group bias on estimates from panel surveys | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Baulch, B. and Hoddinott, J (2000) Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Bonhomme, S. and Manresa, E (2015) Grouped patterns of heterogeneity in panel data | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Carter, M. R. and Barrett, C. B (2006) The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 25 scored citations.