arXiv 3 Apr 2026 · Statistics — Machine Learning
arXiv:2604.04961 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We study identification and inference in nonlinear dynamic systems defined on unknown interaction networks. The system evolves through an unobserved dependence matrix governing cross-sectional shock propagation via a nonlinear operator. We show that the network structure is not generically identified, and that identification requires sufficient spectral heterogeneity. In particular, identification arises when the network induces non-exchangeable covariance patterns through heterogeneous amplification of eigenmodes. When the spectrum is concentrated, dependence becomes observationally equivalent to common shocks or scalar heterogeneity, leading to non-identification. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for identification, characterize observational equivalence classes, and propose a semiparametric estimator with asymptotic theory. We also develop tests for network dependence whose power depends on spectral properties of the interaction matrix. The results apply to a broad class of economic models, including production networks, contagion models, and dynamic interaction systems.
appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anselin, Luc (1988) Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models | 1.000 | 12 | 6 | 100% |
| 2 | Acemoglu, Daron and Carvalho, Vasco and Ozdaglar, Asuman and Tahbaz-… (2012) The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations | 1.000 | 11 | 7 | 100% |
| 3 | Manski, Charles (1993) Identification of Endogenous Social Effects | 1.000 | 11 | 5 | 100% |
| 4 | Graham, Bryan (2017) An Econometric Model of Network Formation | 1.000 | 10 | 7 | 100% |
| 5 | Bai, Jushan (2003) Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions | 1.000 | 10 | 6 | 100% |
| 6 | Elliott, Matthew and Golub, Benjamin and Jackson, Matthew (2014) Financial Networks and Contagion | 1.000 | 10 | 6 | 100% |
| 7 | Acemoglu, Daron and Ozdaglar, Asuman and Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza (2015) Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks | 1.000 | 10 | 5 | 100% |
| 8 | Ghosh, Debashis and Lin, Danyu Y. and others (2024) On Identifiability of Models for Bivariate Failure Time Data | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 9 | Newey, Whitney and McFadden, Daniel (1994) Large Sample Estimation and Hypothesis Testing | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 10 | Bai, Jushan (2009) Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects | 0.928 | 4 | 4 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 33 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sandpile Economics: Theory, Identification, and Evidence | 0.737 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | Sovereign Stress Avalanches and Network Amplification in Latin America | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |