Claudia Noack, Tomasz Olma, Christoph Rothe
arXiv 19 Mar 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2603.18870 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Clustered sampling is prevalent in empirical regression discontinuity (RD) designs, but it has not received much attention in the theoretical literature. In this paper, we introduce a general model-based framework for such settings and derive high-level conditions under which the standard local linear RD estimator is asymptotically normal. We verify that our high-level assumptions hold across a wide range of empirical designs, including settings of growing cluster sizes. We further show that clustered standard errors that are currently used in practice can be either inconsistent or overly conservative in finite samples. To address these issues, we propose a novel nearest-neighbor-type variance estimator and illustrate its properties in a diverse set of empirical applications.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hansen, Bruce E and Lee, Seojeong (2019) Asymptotic theory for clustered samples | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Shimizu, Yuya (2025) Nonparametric regression under cluster sampling | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Abadie, Alberto and Imbens, Guido W and Zheng, Fanyin (2014) Inference for misspecified models with fixed regressors | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Armstrong, Timothy B and Kolesár, Michal (2020) Simple and honest confidence intervals in nonparametric regression | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Hahn, Jinyong and Todd, Petra and Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2001) Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Liang, Kung-Yee and Zeger, Scott L (1986) Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Noack, Claudia and Rothe, Christoph (2024) Bias-aware inference in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | del Valle, Alejandro and de Janvry, Alain and Sadoulet, Elisabeth (2020) Rules for recovery: Impact of indexed disaster funds on shock coping in Mexico | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Granzier, Riako and Pons, Vincent and Tricaud, Clemence (2023) Coordination and bandwagon effects: How past rankings shape the behavior of voters and candidates | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Johnson, Matthew S (2020) Regulation by shaming: Deterrence effects of publicizing violations of workplace safety and health laws | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
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