Lucas D. Konrad, Lukas Vashold, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
arXiv 5 Mar 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2603.04997 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Structural break identification methods are an important tool for evaluating the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we introduce a unified probabilistic framework for detecting structural breaks with unknown timing and arbitrary sequence in longitudinal data. The proposed Bayesian setup uses indicator-saturated regression and a spike-and-slab prior with an inverse-moment density as the slab component to ensure model selection consistency. Simulation results show that the method outperforms comparable frequentist approaches, particularly in environments with a high probability of structural breaks. We apply the framework to identify and evaluate the effects of climate policies in the European road transport sector.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koch, Nicolas and Naumann, Lennard and Pretis, Felix and Ritter, Nol… (2022) Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes | 1.000 | 11 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Pretis, Felix and Schwarz, Moritz (2022) Discovering What Mattered: Answering Reverse Causal Questions by Detecting Unknown Treatment Assignment and Timing as Breaks in… | 1.000 | 9 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Castle, Jennifer L. and Doornik, Jurgen A. and Hendry, David F. and… (2015) Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Stechemesser, Annika and Koch, Nicolas and Mark, Ebba and Dilger, El… (2024) Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Valen E. Johnson and David Rossell (2010) On the Use of Non-Local Prior Densities in Bayesian Hypothesis Tests | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Jeffreys, Harold (1998) The theory of probability | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Tibshirani, Robert (1996) Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | George, Edward I. and McCulloch, Robert E (1997) Approaches for Bayesian variable selection | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Ishwaran, Hemant and Rao, J. Sunil (2005) Spike and slab variable selection: Frequentist and Bayesian strategies | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Valen E. Johnson and David Rossell (2012) Bayesian Model Selection in High-Dimensional Settings | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.