arXiv 7 Feb 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2602.07486 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
A growing body of research estimates child penalties, the gender gap in the effect of parenthood on labor market earnings, using event studies that normalize treatment effects by counterfactual earnings. I formalize the identification framework underlying this approach, which I term Normalized Triple Differences (NTD), and show it does not identify the conventional target estimand when the parallel trends assumption in levels is violated. Insights from human capital theory suggest such violations are likely: higher-ability individuals delay childbirth and have steeper earnings growth, a mechanism that causes conventional estimates to understate child penalties for early-treated parents. Using Israeli administrative data, a bias-bounding exercise suggests substantial understatement for early groups. As a solution, I propose targeting the effect of parenthood on the gender earnings ratio and show this new estimand is identified under NTD.
appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 48% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kleven, Henrik and Landais, Camille and Sogaard, Jakob (2019) Children and gender inequality: Evidence from Denmark | 1.000 | 7 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Melentyeva, Valentina and Riedel, Lukas (2023) Child penalty estimation and mothers' age at first birth | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 100% |
| 3 | Andresen, Martin Eckhoff and Nix, Emily (2022) What causes the child penalty? Evidence from adopting and same-sex couples | 0.941 | 6 | 4 | 83% |
| 4 | Kleven, Henrik and Landais, Camille and Posch, Johanna and Steinhaue… (2019) Child penalties across countries: Evidence and explanations | 0.928 | 5 | 4 | 80% |
| 5 | Callaway, Brantly and Sant’Anna, Pedro HC (2021) Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods | 0.830 | 7 | 5 | 57% |
| 6 | Cortés, Patricia and Pan, Jessica (2023) Children and the remaining gender gaps in the labor market | 0.737 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 7 | Kleven, Henrik and Landais, Camille and Søgaard, Jakob Egholt (2021) Does biology drive child penalties? Evidence from biological and adoptive families | 0.737 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 8 | Goodman-Bacon, Andrew (2021) Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Becker, Gary S and Murphy, Kevin M and Tamura, Robert (1990) Human capital, fertility, and economic growth | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Ben-Porath, Yoram (1967) The production of human capital and the life cycle of earnings | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 60 scored citations.